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Escalating PLA Military Incursions into Taiwan's Contiguous Zone

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-06-25 19:18Z · Overall confidence: MEDIUM

BLUF

China has very likely crossed a significant threshold with repeated incursions of military vessels into Taiwan's contiguous zone, particularly during the December 2025 Justice Mission exercises. The normalisation of such operations marks a qualitative shift that likely increases the risk of miscalculation or incident with serious escalation potential. Taiwan's partners remain slow to recognise the implications of these developments.

Executive summary

The People's Liberation Army has conducted a series of military drills around Taiwan throughout 2025 that demonstrate increasingly assertive behaviour, culminating in the December Justice Mission 2025 exercises where military and coast guard vessels entered Taiwan's contiguous zone in significant numbers for the first time. These actions constitute a deliberate shift in operational posture that lowers the threshold for potential conflict while complicating international response options. Thermal monitoring shows no evidence of kinetic strikes in the Taiwan Strait during the monitoring period despite heightened tensions.

Change from previous assessment

The current assessment differs from the prior brief dated 24 June 2026 by focusing on historical context from 2025 that explains the escalation trajectory now being observed. While the prior report highlighted immediate readinesstraining and carrier transit as current concerns, this assessment establishes how China's December 2025 Justice Mission exercises represented a qualitative threshold crossed through contiguous zone incursions. We downgrade confidence in 'routine PLA coercive pressure' judgments from medium to low given evidence of strategic shifts rather than routine behaviour, while maintaining high confidence in Taiwan's elevated training tempo continuing into August.

Key judgments

1. China very likely conducted a record level of military activity around Taiwan in 2025, including 3,764 air incursions into Taiwan's air defence identification zone and two large-scale exercises named Strait Thunder-2025A and Justice Mission 2025. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: More than 4,000 monthly air incursions recorded by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (0-30 days)
• I&W: PLA aircraft operations within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast on 80% of days (0-30 days)

2. The People's Liberation Army very likely crossed a significant threshold during the Justice Mission 2025 exercises in December 2025 by conducting the first incursions of military vessels into Taiwan's contiguous zone in significant numbers, with 11 People's Liberation Army Navy vessels and eight China Coast Guard vessels entering the 24-nautical-mile zone. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Multiple Chinese military vessels re-entering Taiwan's contiguous zone within seven days (0-14 days)
• I&W: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense issuing formal protest to Chinese authorities (0-14 days)

3. China's military drills very likely simulated scenarios with direct operational relevance to a potential invasion of Taiwan, including blockading port cities, interdicting energy imports, and blocking foreign intervention forces. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: People's Liberation Army exercises incorporating simulated kinetic strikes on energy infrastructure (1-3 months)
• I&W: Chinese government statements explicitly linking drills to Taiwan's 'independence' actions (0-30 days)

4. The normalisation of Chinese military activity within Taiwan's contiguous zone likely increases the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation as these operations lower traditional thresholds for confrontation while testing Taiwan's and international responses. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: NATO, EU or Quad members issuing joint statements specifically addressing incursions into Taiwan's contiguous zone (1-3 months)
• I&W: Chinese vessels operating within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's territorial waters (0-14 days)

Outlook & scenarios

Continued Incremental Normalisation (55%)

China continues conducting monthly military exercises incorporating modest incursions into Taiwan's contiguous zone, gradually normalising presence to the point where protests become routine. International partners issue periodic statements of concern but take no concrete actions, treating these incursions as largely symbolic. Taiwan maintains current defence posture but accelerates asymmetric capability development.

Escalatory Spiral (25%)

Chinese authorities expand military exercises to include incursions within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's territorial sea, triggering Taiwan's declared 'first strike' policy. Kinetic engagement between forces leads to casualties, with China responding by blockading Taiwan's ports. The United States activates contingency plans including forward-deployed carrier strike groups, risking broader conflict.

International Response Coalescence (20%)

Following repeated Chinese incursions into Taiwan's contiguous zone, the United States and regional partners issue a joint statement clearly defining these operations as unacceptable. Multiple nations begin conducting freedom of navigation operations through the Taiwan Strait on a regular basis, with European navies increasing Indo-Pacific presence. China responds by reducing incursions but maintains heightened ADIZ activity.

Recommendations

1. Task an interagency working group to develop specific policy responses to incursions into Taiwan's contiguous zone, distinguishing these from traditional ADIZ incursions in diplomatic messaging
2. Coordinate with Taiwan to establish real-time communication channels between coast guard and maritime law enforcement agencies to prevent accidental escalation during vessel encounters
3. Expand training opportunities for US Indo-Pacific Command personnel on procedures for monitoring and documenting PLA vessel operations within Taiwan's contiguous zone
4. Instruct US diplomatic missions to formally raise the issue of contiguous zone incursions in discussions with China and encourage similar actions by regional partners

Confidence & uncertainty

Overall confidence is assessed as medium due to multiple corroborating sources on PLA activity levels around Taiwan, including Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reports and independent think tank analyses. However, confidence is reduced regarding the strategic intent behind these operations due to reliance on media and think tank assessments rather than direct intelligence. Key gaps exist regarding internal Chinese decision-making processes and the precise operational parameters of China Coast Guard vessels during incursions. Confidence is further complicated by contradictory reporting on whether PLA activity showed a slight decrease in late 2025 despite overall record-high levels.

Cited sources

[1] ChinaPower Project · Tracking China's Increased Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific in 2025 | ChinaPower Project (B) · sha256:6921f1a13e40 [2] thediplomat.com · China’s Taiwan Drills Are Crossing a New Line (B) · sha256:ec1c31870d4c [3] understandingwar.org · Special Report: Surprise PRC Military Exercise Around Taiwan (B) · sha256:a00d90aa01a1

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