Open-source intelligence

Intelligence briefings

Daily, weekly, and monthly briefings synthesizing the period’s key developments — patterns, trends, and full analysis. Updated continuously.

Daily · September 7, 2026

US-Iran Maritime Retaliation Is Constraining Hormuz Traffic; Regional Spillover Risks Persist

The 5-6 September US-Iran exchange now meets the operational definition of a reported maritime retaliation cycle: the IRGC claimed attacks on US warships, US Central Command reported strikes on three Iranian crude carriers, and Iranian authorities subsequently claimed further attacks on US-linked maritime assets. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain severely restricted through 15 September, with moderate confidence, while a complete closure remains unlikely because at least limited commercial movement continues.

Daily · September 6, 2026

US-Iran Maritime Retaliation Raises Hormuz Risk; Kyiv Pause Remains Localised

The 5 September exchange between the IRGC and US naval forces has very likely opened a direct maritime retaliation cycle, with a further US-Iran exchange likely, assessed at 70 per cent with moderate confidence, between 6 September 0128Z and 9 September 0128Z. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain severely restricted through 15 September, while Russia's reported pause around Kyiv is unlikely to become a theatre-wide ceasefire.

Daily · September 5, 2026

Hormuz Traffic Stays Severely Restricted as Houthi Reports Put Mokha Under Pressure

US-Iran military exchanges are likely to continue within 72 hours, while commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain severely restricted through 15 September. Reports of Houthi missile, drone and ground operations near Mokha raise the risk to Bab al-Mandab shipping, but independent evidence does not establish that the Houthis control positions overlooking the strait.

Daily · September 4, 2026

4 September 2026, 0125Z: US-Iran Exchange Broadens as Hormuz Remains Severely Restricted

At the 4 September 2026, 0125Z reporting cutoff, US and Iranian forces are almost certainly still exchanging strikes, with reported Iranian missile and drone activity directed towards US-linked facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan and Iraq. A further US strike or Iranian attack within 72 hours is likely, assessed at 60 per cent with moderate confidence; severe routine commercial restriction through 15 September is very likely, assessed at 80 per cent with moderate confidence, while a complete physical closure remains unlikely at 25 per cent.

Daily · September 3, 2026

Kpler Observed Six Commodity-Vessel Crossings Through Hormuz as US-Iran Exchanges Broaden

US strikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps infrastructure are reported by US Central Command and corroborated by major-media reporting; Bahraini and Jordanian authorities separately reported intercepting Iranian attacks, while alleged Iranian activity involving Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE remains disputed. A new US strike on Iran or Iranian strike on US personnel or facilities is likely, assessed at 60%, within 72 hours, with moderate confidence. Kpler observed six commodity-vessel crossings on 1 September against an approximately 138-vessel pre-conflict daily average cited in the reporting, but the different traffic denominators prevent a precise percentage estimate; severe restriction is very likely through 15 September, while a complete physical closure is unlikely.

Daily · September 2, 2026

US-Iran strikes resume as Hormuz traffic remains below one-tenth of baseline

Another direct US-Iran exchange is likely within 72 hours, with moderate confidence, after the reported 1 September US strikes on IRGC targets in Iran and Iranian reports of retaliation against US-linked positions. Commercial passage through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain severely constrained, defined by Kpler commodity-vessel counts staying below 10 per cent of the cited pre-conflict baseline, although a complete physical closure remains unlikely.

Monthly · September 1, 2026

Larak Strike Reopens Direct US-Iran Exchanges and Restricts Hormuz Shipping

There is a 55-70% chance of at least one additional direct US-Iran exchange involving Iranian, US, Jordanian, Emirati or commercial targets between 2 and 30 September 2026, with moderate confidence. The Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain operationally restricted, defined as fewer than 14 visible commodity-vessel transits on a seven-day average or continued major-carrier avoidance, while normal crude and LNG movement is very unlikely to return by 30 September, also with moderate confidence.

Daily · September 1, 2026

US-Iran Strikes Increase Near-Term Hormuz Risk as Gaza, Ukraine and Niger Remain Active

A further direct US-Iran exchange is likely through 14 September, with moderate confidence, after the US strike on two Iranian launchers at Larak Island on 30 August and Iran's reported missile activity towards King Hussein and Al-Azraq air bases in Jordan. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain severely constrained but partially active, keeping pressure on QatarEnergy, Gulf exporters, shipowners, insurers, Jordanian and Emirati air-defence commands, and US Central Command.

Weekly · August 31, 2026

Hormuz Stays Functionally Restricted as Niamey Mutiny Ends and Strike Tempo Rises

Very likely, with moderate confidence, the week's main trajectory was continued cross-theatre pressure without a confirmed decisive escalation: the Strait of Hormuz remained functionally restricted rather than demonstrably closed, Russia and Ukraine sustained high-volume strikes, and Niger's military government likely contained the Niamey mutiny. Gaza, southern Lebanon, the Red Sea and European hybrid activity remained active, while no new armed incident around Taiwan or direct Russian attack on NATO was established.

Daily · August 31, 2026

Hormuz Restriction Persists as Nigerien Forces Contain Niamey Mutiny

The Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain commercially constrained through 14 September 2026, with low confidence, because Iranian control claims, limited vessel movement, US mine-clearance claims and International Maritime Organization reporting on stranded shipping remain unresolved. Nigerien forces very likely contained the 29 August mutiny in Niamey by 30 August, with moderate confidence, but control of the Diori Hamani airport complex, casualty figures and the combat role of Russia's Africa Corps remain unconfirmed.

Daily · August 30, 2026

Hormuz remains commercially unreliable as Niamey mutiny attribution stays unresolved

The Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain functionally restricted through 1 September 2026, with low confidence, because reported traffic, mine-clearance claims and navigation rules remain contradictory. The 29 August violence in Niamey very likely occurred, but the identity of the attackers and the extent of General Abdourahamane Tiani's control remain unresolved.

Daily · August 29, 2026

Hormuz remains functionally restricted as Russian strikes intensify

The Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain functionally restricted over the next 72 hours, with moderate confidence, despite reported US mine clearance and Qatar-Oman contacts with Iran. Russia is likely to sustain a high conventional strike tempo against Ukraine, while Hezbollah-Israel exchanges around Nabatiya are likely to continue without evidence of a sustained Israeli ground offensive into southern Lebanon.

Daily · August 28, 2026

Hormuz Remains Restricted as Russia Intensifies Ukraine Strikes and Israel Pressures Southern Lebanon

The Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain functionally restricted over the next 72 hours, despite Qatar-Iran and Oman-Iran diplomacy, with moderate confidence. Russia is very likely to continue its intensified conventional air campaign against Ukraine, while Israeli operations in southern Lebanon are likely to continue; a renewed direct US-Iran military exchange remains a roughly even chance over the next 14 days, with low confidence.

Daily · August 27, 2026

Hormuz Traffic Stays Constrained as Iran-Oman Corridor Remains Unverified

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain below pre-conflict levels over the next 72 hours, with a 70 per cent chance of constrained passage, a 20 per cent chance of severe disruption with some passage, a 5 per cent chance of near-normal traffic and a 5 per cent chance of general closure. Iranian and Omani officials have discussed a temporary corridor, but the collection does not establish that it is operational; mine warnings, Iranian transit controls and expanded US sanctions continue to deter normal commercial movement.

Daily · August 26, 2026

Hormuz remains severely constrained as US sanctions widen and Yanbu attribution stays unresolved

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain severely constrained over the next 72 hours, while a general or de facto closure remains unlikely. The US Treasury has implemented wider sanctions against Iran, the Iranian Persian Gulf Shipping Administration is asserting transit rules and threatening penalties against listed vessels, and a tanker incident west of Yanbu adds risk to Saudi-linked shipping without establishing that the vessel was AMZAN or that the Houthis or Iran caused the incident.

Daily · August 25, 2026

Regional Escalation Update: Yanbu Tanker Incident Raises Red Sea Risk as Hormuz Traffic Remains Constrained

A tanker incident reported by UKMTO and the Saudi National Shipping Company west of Yanbu on 24 August adds fresh evidence of danger to Saudi-linked shipping, but the projectile, vessel identity and perpetrator remain unconfirmed. Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain below normal over the next 72 hours, while Iranian passage controls, Houthi/Ansar Allah attacks near the Bab-el-Mandeb, Israeli operations in Gaza and southern Lebanon, and China's announced live-fire drills near the Leizhou Peninsula sustain separate escalation risks. Confidence is moderate for elevated maritime risk and low for exact traffic levels and Yanbu attribution.

Weekly · August 24, 2026

Hormuz traffic stays restricted as US-Iran pressure, Red Sea attacks and Ukraine strikes continue

Very likely, with moderate confidence, ordinary commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain materially below pre-war levels through 7 September 2026 as Iranian passage controls, US Central Command enforcement and conflicting claims over tanker movements persist. US-Iran and Israel-Iran hostilities, Israeli operations in southern Lebanon and Syria, Ukraine-Russia long-range strikes, and JNIM and FLA pressure on Malian forces continued during 17 to 24 August, but the supplied evidence does not establish a complete Hormuz closure, a new PLA armed operation around Taiwan, verified RSF battlefield gains, or a confirmed Sudan-Chad cross-border attack.

Daily · August 24, 2026

Hormuz traffic likely to remain constrained; complete closure unverified

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain in the prior briefing's constrained category over the next 72 hours, at 70-80 per cent probability and moderate confidence. JMIC continues to rate the threat as severe, Kpler reports 95 confirmed crossings and a 19.5 per cent weekly decline, while reported Iraqi tanker passage and US claims of more than 8 million barrels per day may describe different traffic categories. The US Treasury sanctions process, Iranian threats against Gulf interests, Houthi/Ansar Allah maritime activity, Russian strikes on Ukraine and Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon are likely to sustain pressure on shipping, energy and civilians.

Daily · August 23, 2026

Hormuz Traffic Remains Constrained Amid Unverified US Interdictions and Separate Red Sea Piracy

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain constrained over the next 72 hours, with a 70-80 per cent probability and moderate confidence, but the reporting does not establish a complete closure. A further verified incident involving a named commercial vessel in Hormuz has a 40-50 per cent probability, while a further incident in the Gulf of Aden or Bab al-Mandab has a 40-50 per cent probability, both with low confidence.

Daily · August 22, 2026

Hormuz remains constrained as UAE suspends Iran trade; carrier movement unconfirmed

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain constrained over the next 72 hours, defined as 10 to 19 verified commercial transits in 24 hours or a 20 to 49 per cent fall from the seven-day baseline. A further verified security incident in Hormuz is assessed at 40 to 50 per cent, a further verified incident in Bab al-Mandab at 40 to 50 per cent, and material rerouting across either waterway at 60 to 70 per cent; the combined disjunctive probability of at least one of these events is 65 to 75 per cent. A coercively enforced 24-hour closure remains very unlikely at roughly 10 per cent, low confidence.