Investigations
Standalone analytic reports that go deeper than the daily brief: the evidence, the drivers, the competing readings, and where each story is heading. Synthesised from our sourced holdings.
Hormuz Traffic Recovers, but the Strait Remains Contested and Fragile
Oil is moving through Hormuz again, but attacks, rival claims of control and conflicting traffic data make recovery conditional and vulnerable.
Venezuela After Maduro: Oil Opening, Repression and an Unsettled Transition
Delcy Rodríguez’s interim government is negotiating an oil opening with Washington, while UN findings point to institutional continuity and no agreed presidential election timetable.
Hormuz Is Functionally Constrained as Security Risk Outruns US Escort Effort
Visible traffic has collapsed, but dark transits, disputed attacks and parallel routes make the scale of the disruption harder to measure.
Sudan’s War Is Becoming a Transnational Drone and Supply Conflict
Foreign weapons, fighters and logistics are extending the war beyond its front lines while diplomacy struggles to constrain the networks sustaining it.
Trump's 2026 Coercive Foreign Policy: Escalation Without Clear End States
Trump is combining military threats, economic pressure and territorial claims across Iran and Venezuela, but the evidence of durable outcomes remains thin.
Niger's Failed Mutiny Exposes the Junta's Dependence on External Force
An uprising on 29 August was contained, but silence in Niamey and reported Russian and Algerian support expose deeper strains in Tiani's rule.
Niamey’s August Mutiny: A Contained Revolt That Exposed Junta Dependence
The 29 August assault was contained, but the fight for Base 101 exposed fractures inside Niger’s security system and reliance on Russian support.
Iran After the Strikes: Economic Shock, Leadership Change and an Unsettled War Record
The supplied evidence points to severe damage and economic stress, but conflicting dates make the war's sequence and present trajectory uncertain.
Venezuela’s Claimed Post-Maduro Transition Faces an Evidence Gap
Oil output is rising on paper, but claims of a US-led power transfer and earthquake catastrophe remain poorly reconciled.
Hormuz Under Pressure: A Controlled Chokepoint Becoming a War Instrument
Iran’s selective closure, attacks on shipping and US escort activity have reduced traffic, while oil still moves through a narrow and dangerous channel.
Iran's Hormuz Gambit: Coercion Without Clear Control
Iran is trying to turn a contested maritime corridor into bargaining leverage, but the evidence points to coercive reach without reliable control.
US Escalation in Iran: Infrastructure Strikes and Domestic Fractures, July 2026
The Trump administration's sustained strikes on Iranian infrastructure risk catastrophic humanitarian consequences and regional conflagration.
Hormuz at a price: US strikes Iran as it revives blockade and transit fee
Washington couples July 2026 airstrikes with a revived Hormuz regime and a proposed 20 per cent fee, while talks with Tehran continue amid civilian harm.
Iran’s push to police Hormuz as the 2026 confrontation widens
Tehran is asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz with force and bureaucracy while trading missiles across the Gulf.
Russia’s July strike surge on Kyiv raises civilian toll as front shifts unevenly
Early July saw massed missile and drone attacks that killed dozens as Russia pairs salvos with uneven land advances.
Hormuz after the 2026 shutdown: fragile traffic, disputed control
Attacks, mines and a contested fee regime keep the Strait open but precarious as Iran, Oman, the US and Europe test new rules.
China in 2026: Arctic science, contested seas, and a tighter grip on data and trade
Beijing fuses polar research, maritime pressure, and data controls to boost resilience and bargaining power.
Sudan’s war grinds on: aid via Adre extended as economy unravels
A limited aid opening through Chad sits beside a collapsing currency, rampant abuses, and no sign the SAF-RSF war will end soon.
Venezuela’s June earthquakes: rising tolls, tight aid controls, and US leverage
Twin quakes devastated the north as Caracas gates relief and Washington sends ships, planes and funding.
Iran after the 2026 strikes: decapitated leadership, damaged nukes, resilient oil
Joint US-Israel strikes killed Khamenei and hit Iran’s nuclear and military core, yet exports and state control endure under a brittle ceasefire.
Lebanon after the US-Iran interim deal: ceasefire claims, continued war
An interim deal promised a halt in Lebanon. Evidence points to ongoing strikes, rising tolls, and talks stalled over Israeli withdrawal.
Iran’s 60-day Hormuz offer ties shipping access to sanctions relief and a Lebanon truce
Tehran’s temporary opening of Hormuz trades maritime access for nuclear relief and a Lebanon ceasefire, but delays and de-mining keep risk high.
Strait of Hormuz under contest: night escorts, partial flows, tentative deal
Tehran says the strait is shut, CENTCOM says it is open, and a 15 June pact may trade frozen assets for passage even as attacks mount.