Geopolitical events move markets. These are the broad barometers that tend to react to the situations CrisisBrief tracks — energy, rates and financial stress, the dollar and key currencies, and food — shown here as context, set beside the CrisisBrief Index. This page describes what moved; it never tells you what to do about it.
CRISISBRIEF INDEX78SEVERE · as of 2026-10-12
EVENT CONTEXT — relative movement (indexed to 100)9 Jun → 12 Oct
CRISISBRIEF INDEX(0–100, left)BRENT CRUDEVIXUS 10Y TREASURYUS DOLLAR (BROAD)
Each barometer is rebased to 100 at the start of the window, so the lines show relative movement together — not price levels. The amber line is the CrisisBrief Index on its own 0–100 severity scale.
Hover any day to preview it; click anywhere on a day to open the brief behind that date. ◆ marks a day forecasts were sealed — click to see the call and how it resolved.
A dot marks every measured reading; a line turns dashed where that series had no observation and the span is bridged. Each barometer trades on its own calendar, so the dashes do not always coincide — Brent follows the European market while the VIX, 10-year and dollar follow the US one (they part company on dates like Juneteenth), and each series can lag the others by a day or two before publishing.
Market data is shown for general context only and may be delayed or incomplete. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Nothing here is investment, trading, or financial advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or other instrument. CrisisBrief analyses geopolitical events, not markets, and tailors nothing to any individual's circumstances.
ENERGY
BRENT CRUDE
125.44USD/bbl
▼ 0.1%2026-10-06
Global oil benchmark — sensitive to supply shocks and Gulf/Hormuz risk.
WTI CRUDE
96.24USD/bbl
▲ 0.1%2026-10-06
US oil benchmark — tracks North American supply and demand.
NATURAL GAS (HENRY HUB)
3.03USD/MMBtu
▲ 2.4%2026-10-06
US gas benchmark — energy-supply stress proxy.
US GASOLINE (RETAIL)
4.35USD/gal
▼ 2.5%2026-10-05
Pump price for regular petrol — where energy shocks reach households.
RATES & STRESS
VIX
15.41index
▲ 2.2%2026-10-08
Equity-market volatility — the “fear index”.
US 10Y TREASURY
5.22%
▼ 1.1%2026-10-08
Benchmark long-term US yield — flight-to-safety pulls it down in crises.
US HIGH-YIELD CREDIT SPREAD
3.15%
▲ 1.9%2026-10-08
ICE BofA US high-yield spread — widens as markets price in financial stress.
FX
US DOLLAR (BROAD)
121.38index
▼ 0.3%2026-10-02
Broad trade-weighted dollar — global risk + flight-to-safety/haven proxy.
USD/CNY
6.7CNY/USD
• 0.0%2026-10-02
Yuan per dollar — a barometer of US-China tension and managed currency moves.
USD/EUR
1.13USD/EUR
▲ 0.2%2026-10-02
Dollars per euro — European stress and rate divergence read through here.
FOOD & AGRICULTURE
GLOBAL WHEAT PRICE
228.74USD/mt
▲ 14.6%2026-07-01
Global wheat — a Black Sea / Ukraine supply and food-security signal.
GLOBAL CORN PRICE
213.19USD/mt
▲ 8.9%2026-07-01
Global corn — staple-feed price tied to harvests, export bans, and conflict.
Market data is shown for general context only and may be delayed or incomplete. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Nothing here is investment, trading, or financial advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or other instrument. CrisisBrief analyses geopolitical events, not markets, and tailors nothing to any individual's circumstances.