Open-source intelligence · Monthly

Monthly intelligence briefings

Monthly open-source intelligence briefings synthesizing the month's major developments — trends, patterns, and strategic analysis. New briefing every month.

Monthly · September 1, 2026

Larak Strike Reopens Direct US-Iran Exchanges and Restricts Hormuz Shipping

There is a 55-70% chance of at least one additional direct US-Iran exchange involving Iranian, US, Jordanian, Emirati or commercial targets between 2 and 30 September 2026, with moderate confidence. The Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain operationally restricted, defined as fewer than 14 visible commodity-vessel transits on a seven-day average or continued major-carrier avoidance, while normal crude and LNG movement is very unlikely to return by 30 September, also with moderate confidence.

Monthly · July 1, 2026

June 2026 Strategic Estimate: Hormuz coercion sustains maritime hazard; Ukraine escalates deep strikes; Sudan RSF readies assault on El Obeid

Very likely (65-80%; moderate confidence) that reciprocal US-CENTCOM strikes (26-28 June) and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maritime coercion, including routing orders and announced plans for post-window 'service fees', will keep the Strait of Hormuz hazardous to commercial shipping through the next 30-90 days, sustaining paused LNG sailings, diverted crude cargoes and elevated war-risk premiums. Very likely (65-80%; moderate confidence) that Ukraine intensified long-range drone and missile strikes on 26-30 June, reported hits at Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Yaroslavl, Titan-Barrikady and the Dubna Space Communications Centre, materially degrade Russian fuel logistics and prompt sustained Russian missile and drone reprisals against Ukrainian cities; analytic confidence: moderate.

Monthly · June 13, 2026

Gulf and Red Sea chokepoints are the highest near‑term systemic risk after Iran, Israel strikes, Houthi ban on Israeli shipping, Taiwan HIMARS live‑fire and expanded Ukraine deep strikes

Very likely (65-80%): the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el‑Mandeb will operate under sustained high hazard over the next 0-30 days because Iran, Israel direct strikes, U.S. interdictions on Iranian coastal nodes, and the Houthi 8-10 June ban on Israeli‑linked shipping have materially raised maritime risk; analytic confidence: moderate. It is likely (55-75%) that Taiwan will face continued gray‑zone maritime friction after Taiwan’s 10 June HIMARS live‑fire, and very likely (75-90%) that Ukraine will sustain long‑range strikes degrading Russian logistics; analytic confidence: moderate.

Monthly · June 9, 2026

Monthly OSINT Briefing: Escalating Conflicts and Humanitarian Crises in May-June 2026

The period has been marked by escalating military conflicts in multiple regions, notably in the Taiwan Strait, Ukraine, and the Middle East, coupled with deepening humanitarian crises in Venezuela and Sudan. The geopolitical landscape is increasingly volatile, with significant implications for regional and global stability.