Hormuz Restriction and Multi-Theatre Coercion: 1 October to 31 December 2026
From 1 October through 31 December 2026, the US-Iran confrontation is very likely to remain active, with moderate confidence, and the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain operationally restricted, defined as fewer than 14 visible commodity-vessel transits on a seven-day average or continued avoidance by major carriers. Russia is very likely to continue long-range attacks on Ukrainian energy and transport infrastructure, JNIM is likely to sustain attacks on Mali's Kayes-Bamako fuel corridor and military positions, and Houthi attacks are likely to keep Bab el-Mandab and Saudi-linked shipping exposed. A verified seven-day improvement in Hormuz traffic has a roughly even chance, but a normal return of crude and LNG movements and a substantive Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire are very unlikely before 31 October.