Track record
Every published brief’s key judgments are converted into falsifiable, dated propositions. After each deadline an automated resolver searches open sources and scores the call — including the misses. The probability a judgment implies is taken from its own ICD-203 estimative wording (“likely” ≈ 65%), so this page answers one question: when CrisisBrief says likely, how often does it happen?
This diagram plots what we said against what happened: each estimative band sits at its implied probability (x) versus how often it actually occurred (y). The dotted diagonal is perfect calibration — above it we were underconfident, below it overconfident. It populates as forecasts resolve.
Every forecast is sealed into an append-only hash chain the moment it is made, and the chain head is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. That means a call cannot be edited, deleted, or backdated after the fact — and you don’t have to take our word for it. Live forecasts are published as sealed commitments (hash only); resolving one reveals it and lets anyone confirm it hashes to the commitment we published when we made it.
Verify it yourself: /track-record/ledger · /api/track-record/ledger/verify · independent script scripts/verify-ledger.mjs
Methodology: propositions are machine-extracted at publication; judgments that cannot be externally verified are excluded rather than forced. Unresolvable propositions get one 30-day extension, then are voided and reported above. Raw data: /api/track-record. Briefings: /briefings.
For information and analysis only. CrisisBrief forecasts geopolitical events, not financial instruments. Nothing here is investment, legal, or trading advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Calibration reflects past performance on event forecasts and does not predict future results.