Every published brief’s key judgments are converted into falsifiable, dated propositions. After each deadline an automated resolver searches open sources and scores the call — including the misses. The probability a judgment implies is taken from its own ICD-203 estimative wording (“likely” ≈ 65%), so this page answers one question: when CrisisBrief says likely, how often does it happen?
TRACKED
4277
OPEN
4186
RESOLVED
68
VOIDED
23
MEAN BRIER
0.074
DIRECTIONAL ACC.
99%
CALIBRATION RELIABILITY
Each dot is an estimative band, sized by resolved count (n). On the dotted diagonal = well calibrated; above = underconfident; below = overconfident.
CALIBRATION BY ESTIMATIVE BAND
When we said…
n
Implied
Observed
ALMOST CERTAIN
5
95%
100%
VERY LIKELY
22
80%
100%
LIKELY
27
64%
96%
ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE
1
50%
100%
UNLIKELY
2
28%
0%
VERY UNLIKELY
8
10%
0%
ALMOST NO CHANCE
3
3%
0%
CALIBRATION OVER TIME · observed − implied gap
Each point is one month of resolved calls; dot size scales with how many. Above the line = underconfident, below = overconfident. Closer to the line, and trending toward it, means better-calibrated over time.
CALIBRATION BY DOMAIN
Domain
n
Implied
Observed
Gap
Brier
Uncategorised
14
15%
0%
-15
0.044
Middle East: Escalating Conflict Between Iran and Israel Threatens Regional Stability
6
65%
100%
+35
0.122
Middle East: Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates Amidst U.S. Involvement
6
69%
100%
+31
0.101
Bolivia: Political Crisis Deepens Amid Protests and State of Emergency
Eurasia: Intensified Drone Warfare Marks New Phase in Ukraine Conflict
3
75%
100%
+25
0.067
Indo-Pacific: Rising Tensions as China Expands Naval Presence Around Taiwan
3
85%
100%
+15
0.028
Taiwan Strait tensions
2
80%
100%
+20
0.040
South China Sea tensions
2
63%
100%
+38
0.141
Niger: Jihadist Attacks Target International Airport Amid Rising Violence
2
65%
100%
+35
0.145
RECENT RESOLUTIONS
Proposition
Implied
Outcome
Brier
Resolved
Will President Rodrigo Paz declare a 90-day state of emergency for Bolivia by 2026-07-11?
95%
OCCURRED
0.003
2026-08-13
WhyThe Los Angeles Times search result explicitly states that President Rodrigo Paz declared a 90-day state of emergency on June 20, 2026, which is before the deadline of 2026-07-11. The snippet confirms: 'Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has declared a 90-day state of emergency, empowering the military to clear road blockades that have cut off ...'.
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?
7%
DID NOT
0.005
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?
6%
DID NOT
0.004
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?
7%
DID NOT
0.005
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?
4%
DID NOT
0.002
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?
60%
DID NOT
0.360
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
15%
DID NOT
0.023
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
When will OpenAI IPO?
35%
DID NOT
0.122
2026-08-02
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "When will OpenAI IPO?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
VERIFIABLE LEDGER · TAMPER-EVIDENT
Every forecast is sealed into an append-only hash chain the moment it is made, and the chain head is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps. That means a call cannot be edited, deleted, or backdated after the fact — and you don’t have to take our word for it. Live forecasts are published as sealed commitments (hash only); resolving one reveals it and lets anyone confirm it hashes to the commitment we published when we made it.
Methodology: propositions are machine-extracted at publication; judgments that cannot be externally verified are excluded rather than forced. Unresolvable propositions get one 30-day extension, then are voided and reported above. Raw data: /api/track-record. Briefings: /briefings.
For information and analysis only. CrisisBrief forecasts geopolitical events, not financial instruments. Nothing here is investment, legal, or trading advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Calibration reflects past performance on event forecasts and does not predict future results.