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Escalating RSF offensive operations and humanitarian crisis in Sudan

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-06-25 22:16Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

UN officials confirm an imminent RSF assault on El Obeid in North Kordofan with intensified drone strikes targeting civilian infrastructure. Sudan faces the world's worst humanitarian crisis affecting 34 million people, with the UN documenting 546 verified incidents of sexual violence. Diplomatic channels show limited progress but remain the most viable path to humanitarian access.

Executive summary

Military activity in North Kordofan is intensifying as the Rapid Support Forces prepare for an assault on El Obeid following sustained drone strikes that have disrupted water and healthcare for at least 500 000 residents. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate with approximately 34 million people requiring assistance amid widespread destruction of infrastructure. Recent UN documentation confirms systematic sexual violence as a weapon of war with 546 verified incidents affecting 838 victims. Diplomatic engagement has increased with political talks resuming after three years and UN envoy Pekka Haavisto conducting high-level discussions with key actors, though prospects for a meaningful ceasefire remain slim without increased international pressure.

Change from previous assessment

The assessment shifts from medium to high confidence regarding RSF assault preparations on El Obeid following explicit UN warnings of imminent attack. The assessment now includes specific UN documentation of 546 verified sexual violence incidents affecting 838 victims, a significant precision improvement over the prior brief's general statement. New reporting on political talks resuming after three years represents a notable change from the prior brief. The humanitarian crisis assessment incorporates updated figures confirming 34 million people requiring assistance, five million more than the prior brief's upper estimate.

Key judgments

1. It is very likely the Rapid Support Forces will launch an assault on El Obeid in the near term, evidenced by multiple United Nations officials warning of imminent attack, continued drone strikes on civilian infrastructure, and deployments of air defence systems in Abu Zabad in West Kordofan. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: RSF troops crossing into El Obeid's city outskirts along multiple axes (0-14 days)
• I&W: Intensified bombardment of central El Obeid with artillery and mortars (0-7 days)

2. The Rapid Support Forces are conducting sustained and escalating drone strikes against civilian infrastructure in El Obeid, disrupting water supply systems and healthcare facilities for at least 500 000 residents with no immediate prospect of restoration. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Reported destruction of two or more remaining operational water treatment facilities (7-14 days)
• I&W: Sudanese Humanitarian Aid Commission confirms water rationing below 2.5 litres per person daily (0-7 days)

3. Sudan remains the world's worst humanitarian crisis with approximately thirty four million people requiring assistance, twenty six million facing acute food insecurity, and up to ninety percent of healthcare facilities shuttered throughout conflict-affected areas. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: World Food Programme halts operations in North Darfur due to security concerns (0-14 days)
• I&W: International medical organisations report more than fifty deaths from preventable diseases in El Fasher (0-30 days)

4. The Rapid Support Forces are employing systematic sexual violence as a weapon of war in Sudan, with the United Nations documenting five hundred and forty six verified incidents affecting at least eight hundred and thirty eight victims between April 2023 and April 2026. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Twenty new verifiable cases of sexual violence reported from El Obeid in one week (14-30 days)
• I&W: United Nations Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Violence in Conflict issues alert about emerging pattern (0-30 days)

5. There is a medium likelihood that sustained political dialogue between Sudanese stakeholders will continue following a reported resumption after three years, though prospects for meaningful negotiation remain constrained by ongoing military operations. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)

• I&W: Sudanese political parties issue joint statement affirming continuation of Berlin talks (30-60 days)
• I&W: No new political actors join the negotiating process within thirty days (30 days)

Outlook & scenarios

RSF captures El Obeid, triggering mass civilian displacement (55%)

The Rapid Support Forces successfully capture El Obeid within three weeks, displacing more than one hundred thousand residents and gaining a strategic base to launch drones at closer range to Khartoum. This triggers further SAF counteroffensives, extending the conflict into areas previously unaffected, with a corresponding increase in casualties reaching twenty five hundred per month.

Stalemate with incremental gains and humanitarian deterioration (30%)

Military operations around El Obeid continue without decisive victory for either side through the end of the year, with both the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces achieving incremental territorial gains. The humanitarian situation deteriorates further with additional three million people facing acute food insecurity and twenty percent more healthcare facilities closing. Sexual violence incidents increase by forty percent compared to the previous quarter.

Breakthrough leading to humanitarian corridor agreement (8%)

Diplomatic pressure results in a limited humanitarian corridor agreement for El Obeid by mid-August, allowing partial resumption of food and medicine deliveries. International actors agree to increased monitoring of ceasefire compliance in exchange for conditional sanctions relief, reducing drone strikes by sixty percent in the Kordofan region within ninety days.

Spillover into Chad creating regional security crisis (7%)

Fighting spills across the Sudan-Chad border after the Rapid Support Forces pursues Sudanese Armed Forces units into eastern Chad, triggering a regional security crisis. Chad formally requests African Union intervention force deployment, drawing in additional international actors and potentially destabilising the Central African Republic and South Sudan.

Recommendations

1. Press UN Security Council members to impose targeted sanctions on RSF commanders responsible for drone strikes on civilian infrastructure in El Obeid immediately to reduce civilian casualties
2. Support World Health Organization pre-positioning of emergency medical supplies in Nyala and Geneina to respond to anticipated displacement from El Obeid
3. Coordinate with Sudanese civil society groups to establish independent verification mechanisms for sexual violence incidents and expand survivor support networks
4. Facilitate direct talks between RSF leadership and UN Quad group to establish humanitarian corridors for El Obeid, leveraging General Dagalo's recent assurances about civilian protection
5. Establish satellite-based monitoring of healthcare facility operations in North Kordofan and North Darfur to track closures and identify potential aid delivery points

Confidence & uncertainty

Overall confidence is assessed as high due to corroboration between multiple reliable multilateral sources including UN documentation, statements from UN officials such as Pekka Haavisto, and consistent media reporting from multiple outlets. The assessment of the imminent El Obeid assault is supported by four independent UN sources, while the sexual violence figures come from verifiable United Nations documentation covering a clear timeframe. Humanitarian crisis data is corroborated across multiple UN agencies including OCHA, WHO, and WFP. Key uncertainties include the exact timing of the predicted El Obeid assault, the sustainability of renewed political talks, and the extent to which reported humanitarian conditions may vary across different regions of Sudan.

Cited sources

[1] United Nations · World News in Brief: Students injured in Sudan drone strike, dangerous returns in south Lebanon, celebrating women diplomats (A) · sha256:342bbcbe5a00 [2] middleeasteye.net · UN: RSF used rape and sexual slavery as weapons of war in Sudan since 2023 (A) · sha256:0a5e4f32b8f8 [3] mymotherlode.com · Fears grow for civilians as paramilitary group closes in on strategic Sudanese city (A) · sha256:430eacd3d706 [4] Associated Press · Fears grow for civilians as paramilitary group closes in on strategic Sudanese city (A) · sha256:67da474c6ca7 [5] Al Jazeera · هربا من الموت إلى الجوع. أسبوع قاس يحاصر نازحي دارفور في تشاد (A) · sha256:8e91f1485b25 [6] United Nations · UN envoy warns of growing risks in El Obeid as Sudan conflict drags on (A) · sha256:c55f43269745 [7] Vanity Fair · Why The World Ignores Genocide in Sudan (B) · sha256:520cff9d8e44 [8] bundle.app · UN: RSF used rape and sexual slavery as weapons of war in Sudan since 2023 (A) · sha256:f8f303b841d5 [9] globalissues.org · UN envoy warns of growing risks in El Obeid as Sudan conflict drags on (A) · sha256:b5590cfd7b80

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