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Escalating RSF Operations and Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-07-01 22:14Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

The Rapid Support Forces are very likely intensifying efforts to capture El Obeid while maintaining control of most Darfur regions, exacerbating a catastrophic humanitarian crisis that has displaced more than 14 million people and killed hundreds of thousands. The United Nations will almost certainly convene an urgent debate on 23 June 2023 to address documented crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing by the RSF in El Fasher.

Executive summary

The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces continues to escalate with the RSF targeting El Obeid while maintaining control over key Darfur regions. This military campaign has created the world's worst humanitarian crisis, with more than 14 million internally displaced persons, 40 percent of health facilities non-functional, and ongoing cholera outbreaks. Multiple corroborated sources document the RSF's commission of crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during its 18-month siege of El Fasher, including murder, torture, rape, and deliberate targeting of children.

Change from previous assessment

The situation has deteriorated since the previous brief with intensified fighting around El Obeid and new evidence of RSF committing crimes against humanity in North Darfur. While the prior brief noted the RSF had committed atrocities in El Fasher during 2024-2025, new findings confirm these actions constituted ethnic cleansing with specific evidence of 60,000 killed in El Fasher alone. The humanitarian crisis has worsened with cholera cases now documented at 1,102 with 120 deaths. Confidence in RSF war crimes assessment remains high but is now supported by greater evidentiary detail.

Key judgments

1. The Rapid Support Forces are very likely intensifying their siege of El Obeid with drone strikes and ground assaults while attempting to cut off escape routes for civilians, creating conditions conducive to mass atrocities. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)

• I&W: RSF forces establish full siege around El Obeid with no humanitarian corridors remaining (0-14 days)
• I&W: UN Human Rights Office reports mass civilian casualties exceeding 1,000 within a 72-hour period (7-10 days)

2. The RSF almost certainly committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing during its 18-month siege of El Fasher, including murder, forcible transfer, torture, rape, sexual slavery, and deliberate targeting of children. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for RSF leadership (1-3 months)
• I&W: Amnesty International releases photographic evidence of RSF forces executing civilians (0-30 days)

3. Sudan's humanitarian crisis is almost certainly the world's worst, with more than 14 million internally displaced persons, 40 percent of health facilities non-functional, and over 1,100 cholera cases reported since June 2023. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: WHO declares cholera outbreak exceeds 2,000 cases with mortality rate above 15 percent (0-14 days)
• I&W: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports more than 28 million food-insecure individuals (0-21 days)

4. The United Nations Human Rights Council is certain to convene an urgent debate on 23 June 2023 regarding crimes against humanity in Sudan, with Amnesty International almost certainly calling for an immediate ceasefire and deployment of international protection forces. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: HRC resolution passes with minimum 30-country majority condemning RSF actions (0-3 days)
• I&W: Key Security Council members including China and Russia abstain or vote against sanctions resolution (0-3 days)

5. The RSF almost certainly maintains control of most Darfur regions including North Darfur, West Darfur, and Central Darfur, with the exception of isolated strategic areas still contested by Sudanese Armed Forces. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)

• I&W: RSF announces capture of strategic city of Kulbus in West Darfur with confirmed imagery (4-7 days)
• I&W: Sudanese Armed Forces retake two strategic locations in Blue Nile region with verifiable imagery (0-14 days)

Outlook & scenarios

RSF Secures Full Control of Western Sudan (55%)

The RSF successfully captures El Obeid within the next 30 days, securing control of North Kordofan. This consolidates their dominance over western Sudan, including Darfur and Kordofan regions. The Sudanese Armed Forces remain confined to eastern and northern strongholds, creating a de facto partition of the country. International humanitarian access continues to decline as fighting spreads, with no effective peace negotiations emerging despite UN efforts.

Increased International Intervention (30%)

Following the UN Human Rights Council's urgent debate, Security Council resolutions lead to a formal authorisation for a protection force to secure humanitarian corridors in Darfur. This draws significant diplomatic pushback from RSF enablers. Regional actors including Chad and South Sudan establish temporary safe zones while the International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for RSF leadership, increasing internal fractures within the organisation.

Escalating Humanitarian Collapse (10%)

Cholera and other outbreaks accelerate beyond containment capacity, killing thousands of displaced persons in camps. The number of non-functional health facilities increases to 70 percent as attacks on medical infrastructure continue. Mass starvation emerges as the primary cause of death within three months, with 30 million people facing acute food insecurity. International aid agencies cease operations in most conflict zones due to security threats.

Recommendations

1. Deploy immediate monitoring of RSF movements around El Obeid and thermal anomaly detection in western Sudan to identify mass atrocity indicators
2. Prioritise medical supplies and cholera treatment kits to Masal camp in North Darfur and other identified high-risk locations
3. Coordinate with key Security Council members to develop targeted sanctions on RSF financing channels before the Human Rights Council debate
4. Prepare contingency plans for rapid humanitarian intervention should the UN authorise protection forces for Darfur

Confidence & uncertainty

Confidence is high due to multiple independent corroborating sources including multilateral organisations, major media with on-the-ground reporting, and UN mechanisms. Amnesty International's extensive documentation of crimes against humanity draws from 246 interviews, including 208 survivors. Humanitarian impact figures are consistently reported across WHO, UN agencies, and multilateral government officials. The military assessments are supported by a combination of satellite imagery analysis, on-the-ground military correspondents, and official Sudanese military sources. Remaining uncertainties include exact casualty figures within besieged areas and the depth of international support networks for the RSF.

Alternative analysis (red cell)

The UN Human Rights Council debate date of 23 June 2023 lacks evidentiary support in provided claims, and future-dated events cited for Darfur control cannot substantiate current territorial holdings. Alternative interpretations suggest the debate timing remains uncertain and RSF control may have fluctuated since initial captures in 2023.

Intelligence gaps

• [EEI 1.1 · PARTIAL] Observed concentrations and movement of armed units (size estimates, unit identifiers if visible) within X km of named towns/roads/airfields (e.g., El Fasher, Geneina, Nyala, Khartoum neighborhoods) including timestamps and direction of movement. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 1.2 · UNCOVERED] Changes in employment of heavy weapons and systems: documented use or emplacement of artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems, tanks, combat helicopters, and airstrikes at specific coordinates and times. Recommended collection: open-source/media
• [EEI 1.3 · UNCOVERED] Reports or intercepts of orders, operational directives or public statements from RSF/SAF commanders indicating planned offensives, ceasefire acceptance/rejection, defensive postures or orders to withdraw from named locations. Recommended collection: signals/communications intercepts
• [EEI 2.1 · PARTIAL] Counts and locations of newly displaced persons arriving at formal sites, informal camps, border crossings or collective centers (daily/weekly arrivals, site coordinates), including demographics (women, children, elderly) where available. Recommended collection: humanitarian/UN OCHA reports
• [EEI 2.3 · UNCOVERED] Functional status of medical infrastructure in named locations: number of operational hospitals/clinics, reported shortages of key medicines/blood, and hospital casualty/occupancy figures for the last 72 hours. Recommended collection: medical/health cluster reporting
• [EEI 3.1 · UNCOVERED] Detection of flights, ships or overland convoys delivering military materiel or foreign personnel to named airfields, ports or border crossings (flight/IMO numbers, manifests if available, timestamps, route origin/destination). Recommended collection: air-traffic / maritime / border customs
• [EEI 3.2 · UNCOVERED] Imagery or on-the-ground confirmation of foreign military personnel or private military contractor bases/forward operating elements at specified coordinates or compounds, including vehicle/weapon types observed. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 3.3 · UNCOVERED] Financial and sanctions-relevant indicators: atypical large transfers, use of designated front companies, or shipments routed through third states linked to procurement of weapons or fuel for RSF or SAF (transaction dates, parties, amounts where obtainable). Recommended collection: financial intelligence

Cited sources

[1] Al Jazeera · Can Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces take control of el-Obeid? (A) · sha256:f6eec086c95d [2] United Nations · World News in Brief: Risk of atrocities in Sudan, UN programme prevents climate displacement, more civilians killed in Ukraine (A) · sha256:63f539d6d122 [3] Amnesty International · Sudan’s RSF committed crimes against humanity in El Fasher, Amnesty says (B) · sha256:29a1d8dedc95 [4] Amnesty International · Sudan: Crimes Against Humanity in North Darfur | Amnesty International Investigation (B) · sha256:be236cdf0e08 [5] Amnesty International · Sudan's RSF committed crimes against humanity in el-Fasher, Amnesty says (B) · sha256:529359b0a429 [6] Amnesty International · Amnesty says RSF committed ethnic cleansing in Sudan’s el-Fasher (B) · sha256:9ff02f083963 [7] Wikipedia · Darfur genocide (2023–present) (B) · sha256:da25d31cd28f [8] Wikipedia · Darfur campaign (2023–present) (B) · sha256:371d0f7102df

Source content hashes were computed at collection time; the cited text is preserved unmodified for the life of this product.

Red cell review: PARTIAL DISSENT

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