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Analysis · September 3, 2026 · Middle East

Iran-US Escalation Raises Gulf and Maritime Stability Risks

Analysis by Faris McDowall-Rose · Analyst, CrisisBrief · September 3, 2026

—High
BOTTOM LINE

The US-Iran exchange is very likely to remain active over the next 0-14 days, with Iranian attacks already reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq's Kurdistan region and against US positions across the region. Strait of Hormuz traffic is very likely to remain constrained, although reported transit figures differ by vessel category and time window. Diplomatic contacts continue, but a comprehensive US-Iran agreement is unlikely in the near term.

KEY JUDGMENTS
  • The US-Iran exchange is very likely to remain active over the next 0-14 days. Iranian forces are very likely to continue missile and drone attacks against US positions and facilities in Jordan, Iraq's Kurdistan region, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE, while the exact target set remains unresolved. The Jordanian army reported intercepting 13 ballistic missiles, Kuwait reported intercepting an Iranian attack, and Iranian reporting described attacks on US positions in the named countries. US strikes on Iranian territory and on rocket-launching positions on a strategic island in the Strait of Hormuz are also reported. Confidence is medium because US, Iranian, Jordanian and Kuwaiti reporting corroborates an active exchange, but accounts differ over whether the Iranian retaliation struck US positions, third-country territory or both. (medium)
  • The Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain well below normal commercial operating levels over the next 0-14 days and likely to remain disrupted over the next 1-3 months. Kpler recorded six commodity vessels crossing on 2 September, below a recent 10-day average of about 13, while US forces separately reported escorting 40 commercial vessels carrying about 18 million barrels of oil. The different figures likely reflect different vessel categories and time windows rather than a single measure of total traffic. US forces had redirected 86 vessels, disabled three and boarded two by 2 September, while Iran's PGSA warned vessels cooperating with blacklisted tankers of further restrictions. Mitsui OSK Lines expects disruption to extend beyond the end of 2026. Confidence is medium because CENTCOM, Kpler, trade reporting and shipping-company reporting corroborate disruption, but traffic volumes and the operational status of the corridor remain contested. (medium)
  • Recent US strikes in Iran very likely caused civilian casualties, but the precise toll and locations remain unresolved. Iran's health ministry reported 18 killed and 142 injured, including 61 women and 44 minors, while another Iranian account reported 11 killed, including four at a wedding in Sirik county and seven in Khuzestan, with about 70 injured at the wedding. A separate account placed the wedding strike in Kuhestak and Iranian officials attributed at least four deaths there to a US strike. Reporting also gives at least 19 deaths from US strikes. Confidence is medium because the broad occurrence of deaths and injuries is supported by multiple reports, but Iranian casualty figures, the wedding location and the identity of some victims conflict. (medium)
  • Diplomatic containment is likely to continue, but a comprehensive US-Iran agreement is unlikely over the next 0-14 days. Qatar and Egypt discussed coordination to de-escalate tensions and promote security, Qatar called for a comprehensive peace agreement and safe maritime navigation, and Xi Jinping urged Middle Eastern states to resist external interference. These efforts contrast with President Donald Trump's statements that the renewed campaign will not last long and that Israel need not worry about renewed war, while Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned of a response with great force if Iran attacked during the Jewish holiday season. Galip Dalay assessed that diplomacy has not narrowed the gap and that conflicting US signals increase miscalculation risk. Confidence is medium because official diplomatic activity is corroborated, but the assessment of negotiation prospects relies partly on a single expert source and no comprehensive agreement is reported. (medium)
  • Regional spillover is likely to persist over the next 0-14 days through attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime routes. Tehran and Iran-aligned groups are reported to be striking US-linked and regional energy infrastructure, while Houthi forces have attacked a vessel in the Red Sea, killed three Pakistani nationals and targeted shipping around Bab el-Mandeb. Fighting between Houthi forces and internationally recognised government forces has also intensified, and Saudi Arabia has established the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Confidence is medium because the current Gulf infrastructure reporting is from major media, while several Red Sea claims come from trade reporting and describe earlier incidents. (medium)
  • US naval presence in the Middle East is very likely to continue over the next 0-14 days despite the USS Abraham Lincoln's departure from Thailand. US Central Command reported that the USS George Washington had replaced the USS Lincoln and was operating in the Middle East from 20 August. The USS Lincoln docked at Laem Chabang on 2 September after 286 days at sea and repeated missile and drone attacks, and is reported to be heading to San Diego after the port stop. Confidence is high for continued carrier presence because the replacement and the Lincoln's planned departure are separately reported, although the condition of the Lincoln's approximately 5,000 sailors remains disputed. (high)

TLP:CLEAR · Disclosure is not limited.

Iran-US Escalation Raises Gulf and Maritime Stability Risks

Time window: Last 1 day · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-09-03 18:37Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

The US-Iran exchange is very likely to remain active over the next 0-14 days, with Iranian attacks already reported in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Iraq's Kurdistan region and against US positions across the region. Strait of Hormuz traffic is very likely to remain constrained, although reported transit figures differ by vessel category and time window. Diplomatic contacts continue, but a comprehensive US-Iran agreement is unlikely in the near term.

Executive summary

The conflict has intensified through US strikes in Iran, Iranian missile and drone attacks on regional targets, and renewed contest over the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities report 18 deaths and 142 injuries from recent US strikes, while other Iranian reporting gives lower casualty figures and different locations for a wedding strike. Maritime disruption is evident in reduced commodity-vessel transits, US escorts and vessel enforcement, Iranian blacklist measures, and Japanese and European-linked shipping adjustments. Qatar and Egypt are coordinating on de-escalation, while Xi Jinping is urging regional states to resist external interference. These diplomatic efforts have not yet overcome conflicting US and Iranian signals.

Change from previous assessment

Since the 2 September brief, the core assessment is unchanged: US-Iran fighting remains active and Strait of Hormuz traffic is constrained. The assessment now gives greater weight to prolonged maritime disruption because Mitsui OSK expects no return to normal operations by the end of 2026, while current reporting shows both six commodity-vessel crossings and a separate US escort of 40 ships carrying about 18 million barrels. The update adds a further Kuwaiti account of Iranian attack activity, reported US strikes on Iranian rocket-launching positions on a Hormuz island, and Iraqi planning for a four-year, 15 billion dollar pipeline through Syria. Confidence remains medium on exact target lists, casualty totals and transit volumes because those details remain contested. The prior judgements on active fighting, maritime disruption and limited near-term diplomatic prospects are retained.

Key judgments

  1. The US-Iran exchange is very likely to remain active over the next 0-14 days. Iranian forces are very likely to continue missile and drone attacks against US positions and facilities in Jordan, Iraq's Kurdistan region, Bahrain, Kuwait and the UAE, while the exact target set remains unresolved. The Jordanian army reported intercepting 13 ballistic missiles, Kuwait reported intercepting an Iranian attack, and Iranian reporting described attacks on US positions in the named countries. US strikes on Iranian territory and on rocket-launching positions on a strategic island in the Strait of Hormuz are also reported. Confidence is medium because US, Iranian, Jordanian and Kuwaiti reporting corroborates an active exchange, but accounts differ over whether the Iranian retaliation struck US positions, third-country territory or both. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq's Kurdistan region or the UAE report a new interception or impact, alongside a US or Iranian statement attributing the incident to the same strike cycle. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: US Central Command and Iranian authorities announce a sustained halt in attacks, with no new launches, interceptions or reported impacts in the named locations. (0-14 days)
  1. The Strait of Hormuz is very likely to remain well below normal commercial operating levels over the next 0-14 days and likely to remain disrupted over the next 1-3 months. Kpler recorded six commodity vessels crossing on 2 September, below a recent 10-day average of about 13, while US forces separately reported escorting 40 commercial vessels carrying about 18 million barrels of oil. The different figures likely reflect different vessel categories and time windows rather than a single measure of total traffic. US forces had redirected 86 vessels, disabled three and boarded two by 2 September, while Iran's PGSA warned vessels cooperating with blacklisted tankers of further restrictions. Mitsui OSK Lines expects disruption to extend beyond the end of 2026. Confidence is medium because CENTCOM, Kpler, trade reporting and shipping-company reporting corroborate disruption, but traffic volumes and the operational status of the corridor remain contested. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: Kpler records commodity-vessel traffic below its recent average of about 13 on at least five of the next seven days, or US Central Command reports another vessel redirected, disabled or boarded. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: Mitsui OSK announces regular Hormuz transits and Kpler records at least about 13 commodity vessels on seven consecutive days. (1-3 months)
  1. Recent US strikes in Iran very likely caused civilian casualties, but the precise toll and locations remain unresolved. Iran's health ministry reported 18 killed and 142 injured, including 61 women and 44 minors, while another Iranian account reported 11 killed, including four at a wedding in Sirik county and seven in Khuzestan, with about 70 injured at the wedding. A separate account placed the wedding strike in Kuhestak and Iranian officials attributed at least four deaths there to a US strike. Reporting also gives at least 19 deaths from US strikes. Confidence is medium because the broad occurrence of deaths and injuries is supported by multiple reports, but Iranian casualty figures, the wedding location and the identity of some victims conflict. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: Iran's health ministry issues a consolidated update retaining 18 deaths and specifying 142 injuries, or official Iranian reporting reconciles the Sirik, Khuzestan and Kuhestak locations. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: Iran's health ministry retracts the 18-death figure or confirms that the competing reports refer to unrelated incidents with materially different casualty totals. (0-14 days)
  1. Diplomatic containment is likely to continue, but a comprehensive US-Iran agreement is unlikely over the next 0-14 days. Qatar and Egypt discussed coordination to de-escalate tensions and promote security, Qatar called for a comprehensive peace agreement and safe maritime navigation, and Xi Jinping urged Middle Eastern states to resist external interference. These efforts contrast with President Donald Trump's statements that the renewed campaign will not last long and that Israel need not worry about renewed war, while Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz warned of a response with great force if Iran attacked during the Jewish holiday season. Galip Dalay assessed that diplomacy has not narrowed the gap and that conflicting US signals increase miscalculation risk. Confidence is medium because official diplomatic activity is corroborated, but the assessment of negotiation prospects relies partly on a single expert source and no comprehensive agreement is reported. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: Qatar and Egypt publish further mediation steps while Washington and Tehran issue no signed ceasefire or comprehensive agreement. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: Washington and Tehran announce a signed ceasefire or comprehensive agreement, with Qatar or Egypt publishing agreed implementation terms. (0-14 days)
  1. Regional spillover is likely to persist over the next 0-14 days through attacks on energy infrastructure and maritime routes. Tehran and Iran-aligned groups are reported to be striking US-linked and regional energy infrastructure, while Houthi forces have attacked a vessel in the Red Sea, killed three Pakistani nationals and targeted shipping around Bab el-Mandeb. Fighting between Houthi forces and internationally recognised government forces has also intensified, and Saudi Arabia has established the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition for the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Confidence is medium because the current Gulf infrastructure reporting is from major media, while several Red Sea claims come from trade reporting and describe earlier incidents. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: another Houthi attack affects a commercial vessel in the Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb, or Tehran and Iran-aligned groups are reported to strike a named energy facility. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: 14 consecutive days pass without a reported Houthi maritime attack or a reported strike by Tehran or Iran-aligned groups on regional energy infrastructure. (0-14 days)
  1. US naval presence in the Middle East is very likely to continue over the next 0-14 days despite the USS Abraham Lincoln's departure from Thailand. US Central Command reported that the USS George Washington had replaced the USS Lincoln and was operating in the Middle East from 20 August. The USS Lincoln docked at Laem Chabang on 2 September after 286 days at sea and repeated missile and drone attacks, and is reported to be heading to San Diego after the port stop. Confidence is high for continued carrier presence because the replacement and the Lincoln's planned departure are separately reported, although the condition of the Lincoln's approximately 5,000 sailors remains disputed. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)
  • I&W: Confirmation: US Central Command continues to identify the USS George Washington as operating in the Middle East after the USS Lincoln leaves Thailand. (0-14 days)
  • I&W: Break: US Central Command reports that the USS George Washington has left the Middle East and identifies no continuing US carrier presence there. (0-14 days)

Outlook & scenarios

Contained but active exchange (45%)

US and Iranian strikes continue at a controlled level, with Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq's Kurdistan region and the UAE maintaining air-defence activity. US escorts keep some oil moving through Hormuz, but commercial traffic remains below its recent average. Qatar-Egypt coordination continues without a comprehensive settlement.

Prolonged maritime disruption (30%)

Iranian restrictions, US enforcement and attacks on shipping keep Hormuz operating as a tightly controlled corridor. Japanese shipowners continue avoiding the Persian Gulf, Mitsui OSK delays regular transits beyond 2026, and Iraq accelerates planning for an oil route through Syria. Energy-market pressure persists.

Negotiated pause (15%)

Qatar-Egypt coordination gains access to Washington and Tehran, while Xi Jinping's regional diplomacy reinforces pressure for restraint. The US campaign pauses and Iran reduces attacks on regional positions, producing a temporary halt without resolving the broader dispute.

Direct regional widening (10%)

An Iranian attack on Israel during the Jewish holiday season triggers Israel's promised forceful response. At the same time, Houthi maritime attacks and strikes by Iran-aligned groups on energy infrastructure expand. This is the low-probability, high-impact wildcard.

Recommendations

  1. Maintain a 0-14-day launch and interception watch covering Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq's Kurdistan region and the UAE. Record separately the claimed target, the location of impact or interception, the reporting authority and any US or Iranian attribution.
  2. Build one Hormuz traffic series that keeps Kpler commodity-vessel counts separate from US escort totals. Track daily crossings, escorted barrels, redirected vessels, disabled vessels, boardings, PGSA blacklist notices and transponder activity.
  3. Maintain a casualty reconciliation table for the Iranian strikes. Keep the 18, 19 and 11 death figures separate until the Sirik, Kuhestak and Khuzestan locations and the 142, 108 and approximately 70 injury figures are reconciled.
  4. Set immediate alerts for Qatar-Egypt mediation statements, new Xi Jinping calls for regional restraint, a direct US-Iran ceasefire announcement, new US strikes or new Iranian attacks. Flag any divergence between Donald Trump's reassurance to Israel and Israel Katz's warning of a forceful response.
  5. Track maritime spillover separately in the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea. Treat a new Houthi attack on a commercial vessel or a new strike by Tehran or Iran-aligned groups on energy infrastructure as a widening indicator.
  6. Monitor US Central Command reporting on the USS George Washington and the USS Abraham Lincoln's return to San Diego. Keep operational posture separate from the unresolved dispute over conditions affecting the Lincoln's crew.

Confidence & uncertainty

Overall confidence is high for the broad assessment because the active US-Iran exchange, regional interceptions, maritime disruption and diplomatic activity are supported by multiple official statements, major-media reports and high-proximity maritime reporting from Kpler and Mitsui OSK. The main uncertainties concern the exact Iranian target set, Iranian casualty totals, the comparability of Hormuz vessel counts and the operational implications of the USS Lincoln's prolonged deployment. These unresolved details lower confidence in some individual judgements without changing the high-confidence picture of heightened regional instability.

Intelligence gaps

  • [EEI 1.1 · UNCOVERED] Observed repositioning, sustained increases, or new forward basing of Iranian conventional or IRGC forces (armored units, missile batteries, aircraft, naval vessels) toward borders or regional launch points. Recommended collection: IMINT/satellite
  • [EEI 1.2 · UNCOVERED] Hezbollah or other Iran-aligned proxy forces conducting mass mobilization, visible rocket/artillery emplacements, cross-border firing incidents, or preparations for cross-border operations from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or Yemen. Recommended collection: HUMINT/ground ISR
  • [EEI 1.4 · UNCOVERED] Interdicted or observed shipments (air, sea, land manifests, seizures, satellite imagery of transfers) of advanced weapons or missile components from Iran toward proxy groups or forward staging points. Recommended collection: maritime/AIS
  • [EEI 2.1 · PARTIAL] Satellite or on-the-ground imagery showing fires, damage, or operational shutdown at major oil export facilities, refineries, storage terminals, or key pipeline infrastructure in the Gulf and Red Sea. Recommended collection: IMINT/satellite
  • [EEI 2.4 · PARTIAL] Rapid increases in war-risk insurance premiums for Middle East routes, shipping company advisories to avoid region, or major charter cancellations tied to the conflict. Recommended collection: financial/open-source
  • [EEI 3.1 · UNCOVERED] Movement/arrival of major foreign military assets into the region: US carrier strike groups, amphibious ready groups, strategic bomber flights, Russian/Chinese naval taskings, or allied expeditionary units (visible in AIS, NOTAMs, satellite imagery, official releases). Recommended collection: IMINT/satellite
  • [EEI 3.2 · UNCOVERED] Official expedited arms transfers, basing/overflight agreements, or declarations of operational support (formal government announcements, defense ministry releases, logistics flight manifests). Recommended collection: open-source/diplomatic
  • [EEI 3.3 · UNCOVERED] Embassy evacuations, large-scale personnel movements, issuance of government travel bans/advisories, or multinational security alerts affecting foreign nationals and diplomatic posture in the region. Recommended collection: diplomatic/open-source

Cited sources

[1] The Jerusalem Post · Syria’s oil corridor plans take shape as Trump looks beyond Hormuz - analysis (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 16:11:32 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:180c74f34d2c [2] Gulf News · US-Iran conflict: What UAE residents need to know tonight, September 3 (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 13:06:34 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:56ace00b613e [3] BBC News · الرئيس الأمريكي يقول إن الحملة على إيران "لن تستمر طويلاً"، ويقترح إعادة تسمية مضيق هرمز بـ"مضيق ترامب" - BBC News عربي (A) · Wed Sep 02 2026 07:15:11 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:f1426b057e18 [4] Plataforma Media · Middle East escalation deepens as Iran targets Gulf allies (D) · Thu Sep 03 2026 13:52:07 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:39db9d2fff13 [5] gCaptain (republishing Bloomberg) · Japan’s Mitsui OSK Sees Risk to Hormuz Shipping Through Year-End (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 07:00:27 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:4e01db7fece5 [6] Sunday Guardian Live · US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: At Least 18 Dead, 142 Injured as Iran Faces Devastating US Strikes Amid Escalating Tensions; Emergency Response Underway (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 02:35:05 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:c81330a11c3f [7] Sunday Guardian Live · US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Won’t Last Too Long’ - Trump Says US Has ‘Very Strong Control’ Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Millions of Barrels of Oil Being Shipped Amid Escalating Tensions (B) · Wed Sep 02 2026 19:19:33 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:a65bb69841f1 [8] Sunday Guardian Live · US-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Qatar, Egypt Hold Talks To Ease Middle East Tensions, Back Maritime Security And Push For Sustainable Peace (B) · Wed Sep 02 2026 19:49:34 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:4dd77c02300c [9] Sunday Guardian Live · US-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Reject External Interference’ - China’s Xi Urges Middle East to Take Control of Its Future During Rare Egypt Visit Amid Ongoing Iran War (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 00:01:39 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:79dc4b0e4115 [10] TVP World (Telewizja Polska) · Iran war risks settling into a long regional conflict, analyst warns (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 05:01:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:904d082501a4 [11] The Insider (theins.press) · “Islamic NATO”: how will the new alliance between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia affect the region? (B) · Thu Sep 03 2026 06:00:52 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:88b23e8f2ce5 [12] TV7 Israel News · Clash of Civilizations in the Age of Strategic Power Competition (B) · sha256:ce466478406a [13] The Maritime Executive · Red Sea Coastal Battles Intensify Raising New Concerns for Shipping (C) · sha256:f62552db71f8 [14] ABC News · Family members speak out as USS Lincoln docks in Thailand after record 9 months at sea (A) · Wed Sep 02 2026 23:16:00 GMT+0000 (Coordinated Universal Time) · sha256:4a6f42be2365

Source content hashes were computed at collection time; the cited text is preserved unmodified for the life of this product.

TLP:CLEAR

Cited sources

14 sources cited · drawn from 80 assessed open sources · graded on the NATO Admiralty reliability scale (A best → F).

  1. [1]AABC NewsFamily members speak out as USS Lincoln docks in Thailand after record 9 months at seaabcnews.com ↗
  2. [2]BGulf NewsUS-Iran conflict: What UAE residents need to know tonight, September 3gulfnews.com ↗
  3. [3]ABBC Newsالرئيس الأمريكي يقول إن الحملة على إيران "لن تستمر طويلاً"، ويقترح إعادة تسمية مضيق هرمز بـ"مضيق ترامب" - BBC News عربيbbc.com ↗
  4. [4]DPlataforma MediaMiddle East escalation deepens as Iran targets Gulf alliesplataformamedia.com ↗
  5. [5]BSunday Guardian LiveUS-Israel-Iran War Latest News: At Least 18 Dead, 142 Injured as Iran Faces Devastating US Strikes Amid Escalating Tensions; Emergency Response Underwaysundayguardianlive.com ↗
  6. [6]BgCaptain (republishing Bloomberg)Japan’s Mitsui OSK Sees Risk to Hormuz Shipping Through Year-Endgcaptain.com ↗
  7. [7]BThe Insider (theins.press)“Islamic NATO”: how will the new alliance between Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia affect the region?theins.press ↗
  8. [8]BSunday Guardian LiveUS-Israel-Iran War Latest Live News: Qatar, Egypt Hold Talks To Ease Middle East Tensions, Back Maritime Security And Push For Sustainable Peacesundayguardianlive.com ↗
  9. [9]CThe Maritime ExecutiveRed Sea Coastal Battles Intensify Raising New Concerns for Shippingmaritime-executive.com ↗
  10. [10]BTVP World (Telewizja Polska)Iran war risks settling into a long regional conflict, analyst warnstvpworld.com ↗
  11. [11]BSunday Guardian LiveUS-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Reject External Interference’ - China’s Xi Urges Middle East to Take Control of Its Future During Rare Egypt Visit Amid Ongoing Iran Warsundayguardianlive.com ↗
  12. [12]BSunday Guardian LiveUS-Israel-Iran War Latest News: ‘Won’t Last Too Long’ - Trump Says US Has ‘Very Strong Control’ Over Strait of Hormuz, Claims Millions of Barrels of Oil Being Shipped Amid Escalating Tensionssundayguardianlive.com ↗
  13. [13]BThe Jerusalem PostSyria’s oil corridor plans take shape as Trump looks beyond Hormuz - analysisjpost.com ↗
  14. [14]BTV7 Israel NewsClash of Civilizations in the Age of Strategic Power Competitiontv7israelnews.com ↗

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UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO