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PLA Military Normalisation in Taiwan's Contiguous Zone

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-07-12 19:17Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

Very likely the People's Liberation Army has normalised sustained military operations within Taiwan's contiguous zone, posing increased risk of miscalculation between Beijing and Taipei. This represents a strategic shift from episodic demonstrations of force to maintaining persistent military pressure near Taiwan's waters since May 2024. Almost certain Chinese military activity now occurs at levels exceeding historical baselines with significantly larger-scale exercises conducted throughout 2025.

Executive summary

Chinese military activities in the Taiwan Strait have evolved from episodic demonstrations of force to sustained operations increasingly encroaching on Taiwan's contiguous zone. The Justice Mission 2025 exercises from 29-30 December 2025 marked the first significant Chinese military and coast guard vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone. This trend began accelerating after President Lai Ching-te's May 2024 inauguration, with the PLA maintaining a baseline of at least 190 vessels per month near Taiwan. Taiwan reported 3,764 air incursions into its Air Defense Identification Zone during 2025, representing a qualitative shift from previous military posturing.

Change from previous assessment

Prior brief focused on temporary typhoon-related suspension of maritime operations; now Chinese military activities have not only resumed but evolved into a sustained strategic posture within Taiwan's contiguous zone. Current pattern of routine incursions represents substantial change from episodic exercises referenced in previous reporting, with clear documentation of 3,764 air incursions during 2025 and Justice Mission 2025 marking first major Chinese vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone.

Key judgments

1. Very likely People's Liberation Army operations now routinely occur within Taiwan's contiguous zone, representing a strategic shift from episodic demonstrations of force to persistent military pressure. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: Detection of more than 150 Chinese military and coast guard vessels operating within Taiwan's contiguous zone on a sustained monthly basis (0-30 days)
• I&W: Formal Chinese government statement legitimising routine military operations within Taiwan's contiguous zone (1-3 months)

2. Very likely the People's Liberation Army conducted 3,764 air incursions into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone during 2025, representing a tenfold increase from historical baselines. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Taiwan Ministry of National Defense 2026 annual report confirms or revises the 3,764 figure (1-2 months)
• I&W: Commercial satellite imagery shows systematic PLA flight patterns significantly exceeding reported incursion numbers (2-4 weeks)

3. Almost certainly China Coast Guard operations around Taiwan increased over 100% in 2025 compared to 2024, with the Justice Mission 2025 exercises marking the first major incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Vessel tracking data revealing sustained China Coast Guard presence within 12 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast (0-14 days)
• I&W: Formal protest from Taiwan regarding a China Coast Guard boarding operation within its contiguous zone (1-2 months)

4. Very likely China's military posture toward Taiwan has shifted to maintaining a permanent high-alert presence since May 2024, with six major exercises conducted in 2025 alone. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: PLA Eastern Theater Command announcement of permanent military rotation system around Taiwan (0-30 days)
• I&W: US Indo-Pacific Command report documenting sustained Chinese military readiness posture near Taiwan (2-3 months)

Outlook & scenarios

Continued Normalisation with Limited Escalation (60%)

PLA activities gradually become a normalised feature in Taiwan's contiguous zone with military exercises increasing in frequency but not scale. China maintains approximately 200 vessels active near Taiwan monthly while conducting quarterly major drills. Taiwan responds with enhanced military monitoring and diplomatic protests. Risk of unintended escalation remains moderate but contained through existing backchannels.

Accelerated Containment Strategy (25%)

China intensifies blockade-style operations with sustained presence exceeding 300 military and coast guard vessels near Taiwan. PLA begins regular amphibious landing exercises within 50 nautical miles of Taiwan's coast. Taiwan deploys additional naval assets and potentially activates reserve forces. US and regional partners increase freedom of navigation operations, raising miscalculation risk substantially between all parties.

Strategic Pause (15%)

China temporarily reduces military pressure following internal leadership changes or international diplomatic pressure. PLA returns to pre-2024 exercise frequency while maintaining rhetorical pressure on Taiwan independence. Taiwan uses the pause to strengthen asymmetric defences and deepen security cooperation with partners. This scenario represents a temporary reprieve rather than strategic reversal.

Recommendations

1. Monitor AIS vessel tracking data for patterns indicating Chinese military normalisation within Taiwan's contiguous zone, prioritising persistent patterns over single incursions
2. Analyse Chinese state media narratives regarding Taiwan to identify potential triggers for escalation or de-escalation in military activities
3. Track Taiwan's military procurement and strategic doctrine development to assess evolving defensive posture against sustained Chinese pressure
4. Coordinate with allies to develop unified monitoring methodology for Chinese military activities near Taiwan to improve assessment reliability

Confidence & uncertainty

High confidence reflects corroboration across multiple source types including official military reports, think tank analyses, and commercial media with high reliability scores. The pattern of increasing Chinese military activity is supported by quantitative vessel counts, exercise dates, and geographical patterns consistent across sources. While some discrepancies exist regarding exact vessel counts and exercise frequency, the overall trend of normalised operations within Taiwan's contiguous zone is firmly established. Main uncertainties relate to Chinese strategic intent behind these activities and potential escalation thresholds.

Intelligence gaps

• [EEI 1.1 · UNCOVERED] Concentration of PLA amphibious warfare vessels exceeding 15 ships in Fujian Province naval ports. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 1.2 · UNCOVERED] Unplanned surge in encrypted communications traffic from PLA Eastern Theater Command headquarters. Recommended collection: SIGINT
• [EEI 1.3 · UNCOVERED] Movement of PLA airborne unit heavy equipment to airbases within 200km of Taiwan Strait. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 2.2 · PARTIAL] Number of active PLA naval live-fire exercise zones in Taiwan Strait international waters. Recommended collection: SIGINT
• [EEI 2.3 · UNCOVERED] Positioning of PLA Type 055 destroyers west of 122°E longitude. Recommended collection: maritime/AIS
• [EEI 3.1 · UNCOVERED] Operational activation of Taiwan's Hsiung Feng III coastal defense missile systems. Recommended collection: SIGINT
• [EEI 3.2 · UNCOVERED] Increased cargo aircraft movements to Penghu Islands military installations. Recommended collection: air/ADS-B

Cited sources

[1] thediplomat.com · China’s Taiwan Drills Are Crossing a New Line (B) · sha256:ec1c31870d4c [2] Council on Foreign Relations · China in the Taiwan Strait: February 2025 (B) · sha256:dc1a0cf0cd60 [3] understandingwar.org · Special Report: Surprise PRC Military Exercise Around Taiwan (B) · sha256:a00d90aa01a1 [4] Wikipedia · 2022 Chinese military exercises around Taiwan (B) · sha256:bae08b378cfa [5] Wikipedia · Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis (B) · sha256:38c3f408e7a0 [6] ChinaPower Project · Tracking China's Increased Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific in 2025 | ChinaPower Project (B) · sha256:6921f1a13e40 [7] voanews.com · China conducts military exercises around Taiwan aimed at ‘deterring separatist forces’ (A) · sha256:910982a513e1

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