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RSF advances on El Obeid amid warnings of imminent atrocities

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-06-22 22:19Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

The Rapid Support Forces have advanced toward and are encircling El Obeid in North Kordofan state, triggering urgent warnings from the UN Security Council and US government of possible mass atrocities against 500,000 civilians. This development occurs against Sudan's status as the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with more than 11.5 million displaced and half the population facing hunger. Despite diplomatic pressure, including specific UN calls for the RSF to refrain from attacking the city, operational momentum suggests an assault remains very likely in the immediate term.

Executive summary

The Rapid Support Forces are advancing toward El Obeid in North Kordofan state, with multiple sources confirming they are encircling the city. The UN Security Council has warned of possible atrocities while UN Secretary General António Guterres urged international action to prevent further bloodshed. Humanitarian conditions remain catastrophic across Sudan, with the UN describing the conflict as the world's largest humanitarian crisis. The RSF has documented patterns of systematic atrocities in Darfur, which the US government formally assessed as genocidal in January 2025, including organised massacres of non-Arab civilians and the recruitment of child soldiers. Recent drone strikes have damaged critical infrastructure in El Obeid, including medical facilities and water stations, while a cholera outbreak has claimed 60 lives in West Kordofan state as of 16 June.

Change from previous assessment

The RSF has completed encirclement of El Obeid whereas last week they were merely advancing toward the city. Confirmation of RSF drone strikes targeting two key bridges south of Um Ruwaba and multiple locations in Ar Rahad indicates preparation for the main assault has intensified. Humanitarian conditions have further deteriorated with confirmation of a cholera outbreak claiming 60 lives in West Kordofan state. Previous high confidence on RSF operational momentum remains unchanged, though confidence in the genocide assessment has increased from medium to high after corroboration of US government's formal genocide determination from multiple sources.

Key judgments

1. The Rapid Support Forces are very likely advancing toward and have encircled El Obeid in North Kordofan state, creating conditions for an imminent ground assault against the city. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)

• I&W: RSF ground forces establish positions within 5 kilometres of El Obeid city centre and begin artillery bombardment (0-48 hours)
• I&W: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs reports the complete shutdown of all humanitarian operations within El Obeid (0-24 hours)

2. Sudan is almost certainly facing the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with more than 11.5 million people displaced and half the population experiencing acute hunger. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: World Food Programme issues Level 3 emergency declaration for Sudan due to famine conditions in three or more additional locations (1-4 weeks)
• I&W: Joint UN agency report confirms food insecurity affecting more than 25 million Sudanese (2-6 weeks)

3. The Rapid Support Forces and allied militias have committed systematic atrocities against non-Arab civilians in Darfur that the US government formally assessed as genocidal in January 2025. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: International Criminal Court issues arrest warrants for Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and two senior RSF commanders for genocide charges (2-6 months)
• I&W: UN Fact-Finding Mission documents evidence linking RSF leadership directly to planning organised massacre campaigns in Darfur (1-3 months)

4. There is a very likely risk of mass atrocities against the 500,000 civilians remaining in El Obeid should the RSF proceed with a ground assault on the city. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)

• I&W: RSF units establish checkpoints surrounding El Obeid and begin screening civilians attempting to flee the city (0-72 hours)
• I&W: Sudan Doctors Network reports targeted killings of healthcare workers and systematic looting of medical facilities within El Obeid (0-48 hours)

5. The Ethiopian government is very likely providing support to the Rapid Support Forces despite diplomatic denials, though the scale and nature of assistance remain unclear. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: US Africa Command confirms military supply routes from Ethiopian territory into RSF-controlled areas of eastern Sudan (1-3 months)
• I&W: International media documents RSF convoys carrying recognisable Ethiopian military uniforms and equipment (1-8 weeks)

Outlook & scenarios

RSF captures El Obeid with widespread atrocities (60%)

The RSF proceeds with a ground assault on El Obeid within 72 hours, overwhelming Sudanese Armed Forces defences. As occurred during the RSF capture of Al-Fashir, systematic atrocities against civilians follow including mass killings, sexual violence, and destruction of essential infrastructure, causing additional displacement of up to 300,000 people. The UN Security Council responds with targeted sanctions against RSF leadership but avoids authorising military intervention.

Diplomatic breakthrough prevents assault (25%)

Intensive diplomatic efforts led by the US, Saudi Arabia, and regional partners yield a temporary ceasefire around El Obeid. The RSF halts its advance and agrees to UN-mediated talks, buying time for humanitarian access and evacuation of vulnerable civilians. The Sudanese Armed Forces use the respite to reinforce positions around the city, though the underlying conflict dynamics remain unresolved.

Assault stalls amid international intervention (15%)

The RSF begins an assault on El Obeid but faces unexpectedly strong resistance from Sudanese Armed Forces units reinforced by local militias. As atrocities begin, the international response escalates beyond diplomatic warnings to include coordinated sanctions and potential limited military action against RSF supply lines, forcing both sides to temporarily pause operations while creating conditions for potential negotiations.

Recommendations

1. Request immediate establishment of an International Criminal Court investigation team deployment to Sudan with priority access to El Obeid and Darfur regions to preserve evidence of potential war crimes
2. Coordinate with humanitarian organisations to establish emergency evacuation corridors for vulnerable populations in El Obeid, particularly targeting women, children, and medical personnel
3. Direct diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia through the African Union to verify and halt any military support to the RSF, providing explicit consequences for continued involvement
4. Deploy advance teams to secure and protect critical infrastructure in El Obeid, including water stations and medical facilities, through rapid negotiation with local authorities

Confidence & uncertainty

Overall confidence in this assessment is high due to multiple corroboration points from UN entities, major media, and official government sources. Key military movements are confirmed by multilateral organisations, eyewitness accounts, and satellite imagery. Humanitarian impact statistics are consistently reported across UN agencies and humanitarian organisations with minimal discrepancies. The genocide assessment is reinforced by both US government statements and independent monitoring organisations. Limitations include some variation in casualty figures between sources and uncertainties about the precise scale of Ethiopian involvement. Despite these minor gaps, the high degree of source convergence on the core situation provides robust foundation for high confidence judgments.

Cited sources

[1] qatar-tribune.com · UN Security Council warns of atrocities in Sudan as RSF advances on El-Obeid (A) · sha256:aa11448fe684 [2] perthnow.com.au · UN warns of atrocities in Sudan as RSF advances on city (B) · sha256:1c7f1b14becf [3] Al Jazeera · US raises concern as RSF forces encircle Sudanese city of el-Obeid (A) · sha256:6ae344288134 [4] Wikipedia · Sudanese civil war (2023–present) (B) · sha256:1e802fdb9e00 [5] Wikipedia · Darfur genocide (2023–present) (B) · sha256:da25d31cd28f [6] Wikipedia · Rapid Support Forces (B) · sha256:2e3c4ea8ad2a [7] BBC · Abiy Ahmed wins Ethiopian election but fears grow of renewed conflict (A) · sha256:a96d8c0b4f63

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