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Sudan conflict escalation and gum arabic trade exploitation

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-07-15 22:11Z · Overall confidence: HIGH

BLUF

Sudan's humanitarian crisis has worsened with more than 100,000 people facing famine conditions, while both the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces continue exploiting gum arabic trade routes to finance military operations despite international pressure. El Obeid sees temporary respite as violence eases, creating a narrow window for increased aid delivery.

Executive summary

The ongoing Sudanese conflict continues to exacerbate humanitarian conditions with approximately 19.5 million people facing acute food insecurity and new cholera outbreaks reported in multiple regions. Both warring parties have systematically redirected Sudan's gum arabic trade - which previously accounted for 70-80 percent of global crude exports - to fund military operations, as evidenced by RSF looting of the El-Nuhud Gum Arabic Exchange in May 2025 and subsequent redirection of supplies to Souq al-Na'am. International actors including the G7 have called for expanded arms embargoes and urged external states to cease military support, though the United States faces a significant funding shortfall for World Food Programme operations.

Change from previous assessment

Key changes since 14 July include documented evidence of RSF looting gum arabic warehouses in El-Nuhud and redirecting supplies to Souq al-Na'am as part of systematic war economy exploitation; temporary easing of violence around El Obeid enabling potential aid expansion; and G7 foreign ministers specifically calling for expansion of Darfur arms embargo to cover all Sudan. Confidence remains high as new evidence corroborates earlier findings about conflict financing mechanisms while adding concrete details about trade route exploitation.

Key judgments

1. Very likely Sudan's hunger crisis is worsening with more than 100,000 people facing famine-like conditions across IPC Phase 5 regions while the World Food Programme has reduced assistance from five million to approximately 3.5 million people due to insufficient funding. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Documented increase in WFP food distribution numbers to exceed 4.5 million people (0-14 days)
• I&W: Additional 20,000 confirmed cholera cases reported across multiple regions (1-3 months)

2. Very likely both the Rapid Support Forces and Sudanese Armed Forces continue exploiting gum arabic trade routes to finance military operations, with RSF having looted the El-Nuhud Gum Arabic Exchange warehouses in May 2025 and redirected significant quantities toward Souq al-Na'am. (Confidence: high · ASSESSED)

• I&W: Documented RSF-controlled gum arabic shipments through Souq al-Na'am demilitarized zone (0-14 days)
• I&W: UN verification mission confirms new gum arabic processing site operation in Darfur (1-3 months)

3. Likely violence around El Obeid in North Kordofan has temporarily eased creating potential to expand humanitarian assistance from 100,000 to 250,000 people despite ongoing risks of further international crimes. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)

• I&W: WFP verifies delivery of expanded aid packages reaching 200,000 people in El Obeid (0-14 days)
• I&W: Renewed drone strikes against infrastructure within 10 kilometres of El Obeid (0-14 days)

4. Almost certainly the G7 foreign ministers have coordinated a diplomatic push calling for the United Nations Security Council to expand the Darfur arms embargo to cover all Sudanese territory and urging external actors to cease military support to warring parties. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: UN Security Council scheduling formal discussion on expanding Darfur arms embargo (1-3 months)
• I&W: Documented reduction in external military supplies entering Sudan via Chad or South Sudan (2-6 months)

Outlook & scenarios

Continued humanitarian deterioration (65%)

Conflict persists with both warring parties intensifying exploitation of gum arabic trade while blocking humanitarian access. WFP assistance falls below three million people as funding shortfalls worsen, causing famine conditions to spread beyond current IPC Phase 5 areas, with documented cholera cases exceeding 2,500 nationwide by August 2026.

Temporary aid expansion window (25%)

The current lull in El Obeid fighting holds for two to three weeks, enabling WFP to increase aid deliveries to 250,000 people. International pressure following the G7 statement prompts limited cooperation from the Sudanese Armed Forces in Central Sudan, creating pockets of improved humanitarian access before renewed hostilities in late July.

Gum arabic trade disruption triggers economic crisis (10%)

European Union extends sanctions to target the entire gum arabic value chain in August 2026 after documented evidence of RSF exploitation. This triggers a cascading collapse in the informal economy sustaining both warring parties, leading to internal mutinies within RSF units by September and potential fracture points in conflict dynamics.

Recommendations

1. Prioritise monitoring of gum arabic smuggling routes through Souq al-Na'am demilitarised zone as an early indicator of RSF funding streams and potential battlefield advantages
2. Coordinate with International Criminal Court investigators to document gum arabic looting incidents as evidence of war crime financing mechanisms
3. Assess feasibility of establishing temporary humanitarian corridor through Tine border crossing before renewed Darfur fighting disrupts access completely

Confidence & uncertainty

Overall confidence is high due to corroboration from multilateral organisations including United Nations agencies, World Food Programme reports, and official government statements from the UK and G7 nations. These sources provide consistent reporting on humanitarian conditions, military activities, and diplomatic developments across multiple independent channels. Remaining uncertainties relate to real-time military movements and the precise scale of illicit trade operations, though the general patterns of gum arabic exploitation by both warring parties are well-documented across multiple reliable sources.

Intelligence gaps

• [EEI 1.1 · PARTIAL] Observed concentrations and movement of armed units (size estimates, unit identifiers if visible) within X km of named towns/roads/airfields (e.g., El Fasher, Geneina, Nyala, Khartoum neighborhoods) including timestamps and direction of movement. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 1.3 · UNCOVERED] Reports or intercepts of orders, operational directives or public statements from RSF/SAF commanders indicating planned offensives, ceasefire acceptance/rejection, defensive postures or orders to withdraw from named locations. Recommended collection: signals/communications intercepts
• [EEI 2.1 · UNCOVERED] Counts and locations of newly displaced persons arriving at formal sites, informal camps, border crossings or collective centers (daily/weekly arrivals, site coordinates), including demographics (women, children, elderly) where available. Recommended collection: humanitarian/UN OCHA reports
• [EEI 2.2 · PARTIAL] Access impediments to humanitarian assistance: reported attacks on, blockages of, or denial of passage for named humanitarian convoys (dates, GPS locations, responsible actor if known) and closure status of specific routes. Recommended collection: human intelligence/field reporting
• [EEI 2.3 · UNCOVERED] Functional status of medical infrastructure in named locations: number of operational hospitals/clinics, reported shortages of key medicines/blood, and hospital casualty/occupancy figures for the last 72 hours. Recommended collection: medical/health cluster reporting
• [EEI 3.1 · UNCOVERED] Detection of flights, ships or overland convoys delivering military materiel or foreign personnel to named airfields, ports or border crossings (flight/IMO numbers, manifests if available, timestamps, route origin/destination). Recommended collection: air-traffic / maritime / border customs
• [EEI 3.2 · UNCOVERED] Imagery or on-the-ground confirmation of foreign military personnel or private military contractor bases/forward operating elements at specified coordinates or compounds, including vehicle/weapon types observed. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite

Cited sources

[1] Al Jazeera · Sudan faces escalating hunger crisis due to war and Hormuz disruption – WFP (A) · sha256:09de56e983c0 [2] africa.businessinsider.com · Sudan’s fragile fight against famine faces new threat as Gulf conflict drives up farming costs (B) · sha256:8acea1cf52e7 [3] Upbeat Communities · Why do people flee Sudan? — Upbeat Communities (C) · sha256:d95bada53c57 [4] United Nations · Looted gold and gum arabic are bankrolling Sudan's war, UN warns (A) · sha256:95383adb2047 [5] miragenews.com · UN Report: War Economy Fuels Sudan Conflict (A) · sha256:68e9967e832d [6] euronews.com · Sudan's 'war economy' fuelling conflict, United Nations says (B) · sha256:657be95a0bc2 [7] UK Government · Justice and accountability remain important to international efforts in Sudan: UK Statement at the UN Security Council (A) · sha256:ba9f8f04df2a [8] marinelink.com · G7 calls for a wider arms embargo and a halt to the attacks in El-Obeid in Sudan (D) · sha256:886867785ae7

Source content hashes were computed at collection time; the cited text is preserved unmodified for the life of this product.

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