TLP:CLEAR · Disclosure is not limited.

Sudan conflict update: RSF leadership condemned while humanitarian crisis deepens

Time window: Last 7 days · Audience: General analyst · Type: Situation report · DTG: 2026-07-13 22:13Z · Overall confidence: MEDIUM

BLUF

Sudanese courts have sentenced RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo to death for war crimes and genocide, marking a significant legal escalation against the paramilitary group. The humanitarian crisis continues to deteriorate with over 14 million displaced and severe food insecurity affecting 25 million people. International actors have imposed targeted sanctions on Sudan's gold trade, though foreign support continues to flow to both factions.

Executive summary

The Sudanese government has secured a landmark conviction against RSF leadership while international actors escalate pressure through gold trade sanctions. Humanitarian conditions continue worsening with 25 million facing severe food insecurity and nearly 5 million children acutely malnourished. The RSF maintains control over strategic locations including El Fasher despite the government's transitional plans, with no clear resolution to the conflict after more than three years of fighting. Foreign state support for both factions persists despite international condemnation of war crimes.

Change from previous assessment

The RSF's confirmed capture of El Fasher in late 2025 represents a significant deterioration in SAF's position compared to our prior assessment that described the city as under siege in May 2024. The Sudanese government's successful prosecution of RSF leadership for genocide, alongside the US genocide determination, marks a new legal dimension absent in the prior brief. Confidence in our humanitarian assessment has increased slightly due to more precise displacement and malnutrition figures from multiple sources, while confidence in territorial control assessments has decreased due to contradictory claims about Khartoum and Darfur.

Key judgments

1. Sudanese courts have convicted RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and 15 senior RSF commanders in absentia for genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity related to atrocities in West Darfur. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)

• I&W: RSF issues an official public response to the verdict (0-14 days)
• I&W: Sudanese government executes confiscation order against RSF assets (1-3 months)

2. The United States government has formally determined the RSF committed acts of genocide in Sudan, making this the first official genocide determination against the group by a major power. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Additional states issue similar genocide determinations (1-3 months)
• I&W: US expands sanctions specifically citing genocide determination (0-14 days)

3. The humanitarian situation has deteriorated to catastrophic levels, with over 14 million people forcibly displaced, 25 million suffering severe food insecurity, and 4 million children acutely malnourished including 770,000 at imminent risk of death. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)

• I&W: UN OCHA reports exceed 14.5 million displaced persons (0-14 days)
• I&W: Malnutrition rates exceed 30 percent in three or more states (1-3 months)

4. The RSF maintains firm control over most of Darfur including El Fasher, the last major SAF stronghold in the region, following their October 2025 capture of the city. (Confidence: medium · REPORTED)

• I&W: SAF issues credible visual evidence of regained territory in Darfur (0-14 days)
• I&W: International organisations report SAF presence in Darfur state capitals (1-3 months)

5. The European Union has imposed comprehensive sanctions targeting Sudan's gold trade, including a ban on purchasing Sudanese gold and restrictions on chemical inputs used in gold processing. (Confidence: high · REPORTED)

• I&W: Gold exports from Sudan decrease by 25 percent within one month (1-3 months)
• I&W: RSF issues public statement addressing reduced gold revenues (0-14 days)

6. The United Arab Emirates continues providing financial support to the RSF despite international sanctions, while the RSF recruits additional fighters from Chad and hires mercenaries for foreign conflicts. (Confidence: medium · ASSESSED)

• I&W: Financial flows from UAE to RSF-linked entities exceed $5 million monthly (1-3 months)
• I&W: Chadian government acknowledges RSF recruitment on its territory (0-14 days)

Outlook & scenarios

RSF consolidates control through military and economic dominance (50%)

The RSF capitalises on its territorial gains in Darfur and sustained funding from foreign sources to consolidate control over strategic gold-producing regions. International sanctions on gold trade have limited impact as alternative smuggling networks expand through Chad and Darfur. The Sudanese government's transitional authority remains confined to Port Sudan without meaningful military resurgence, leading to a de facto partition of the country by early 2027.

International pressure triggers RSF fragmentation (30%)

Combined impact of the US genocide determination, EU gold sanctions and intensified ICC investigations fractures the RSF leadership. Key commanders defect following the death sentence for Dagalo, with rival factions competing for control of gold trade routes. This internal division creates opportunities for SAF to regain territory in central Sudan while humanitarian access improves marginally in areas no longer contested by RSF.

Regional escalation through foreign intervention (20%)

Foreign support to both sides intensifies as the UAE increases assistance to the RSF and Egypt bolsters SAF forces. Direct military intervention by Chad in support of affected communities exacerbates regional tensions. The conflict expands beyond Sudan's borders, with aerial engagements between Chadian and RSF-aligned forces triggering a broader regional crisis that draws in multiple security actors by mid-2027.

Recommendations

1. Request immediate verification of EU gold sanctions implementation through financial intelligence channels
2. Establish dedicated monitoring cell to track humanitarian access disruptions across all contested states
3. Prepare contingency plans for potential RSF leadership fragmentation following death sentence confirmation
4. Coordinate with UN investigators to document evidence of genocide for potential ICC proceedings

Confidence & uncertainty

The assessed medium confidence reflects reliable reporting on humanitarian conditions and international actions, though territorial control assessments remain inconsistent across sources. High-confidence reporting on the death sentence verdict and US genocide determination provides solid foundation on legal developments, while sanctions implementation details benefit from multiple credible governmental sources. However, contradictory claims about military developments and foreign involvement in Darfur warrant caution, particularly regarding RSF's current operational control as some reports suggest SAF counter-offensives while others indicate RSF consolidation.

Intelligence gaps

• [EEI 1.1 · UNCOVERED] Observed concentrations and movement of armed units (size estimates, unit identifiers if visible) within X km of named towns/roads/airfields (e.g., El Fasher, Geneina, Nyala, Khartoum neighborhoods) including timestamps and direction of movement. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 1.2 · UNCOVERED] Changes in employment of heavy weapons and systems: documented use or emplacement of artillery, multiple-launch rocket systems, tanks, combat helicopters, and airstrikes at specific coordinates and times. Recommended collection: open-source/media
• [EEI 1.3 · UNCOVERED] Reports or intercepts of orders, operational directives or public statements from RSF/SAF commanders indicating planned offensives, ceasefire acceptance/rejection, defensive postures or orders to withdraw from named locations. Recommended collection: signals/communications intercepts
• [EEI 1.4 · UNCOVERED] Status of critical infrastructure and lines of communication: control or denial of named bridges, main highways (identify route numbers), airfields, fuel depots and telecommunication hubs and any reported sabotage/blockage incidents. Recommended collection: human intelligence/field reporting
• [EEI 2.1 · UNCOVERED] Counts and locations of newly displaced persons arriving at formal sites, informal camps, border crossings or collective centers (daily/weekly arrivals, site coordinates), including demographics (women, children, elderly) where available. Recommended collection: humanitarian/UN OCHA reports
• [EEI 2.2 · UNCOVERED] Access impediments to humanitarian assistance: reported attacks on, blockages of, or denial of passage for named humanitarian convoys (dates, GPS locations, responsible actor if known) and closure status of specific routes. Recommended collection: human intelligence/field reporting
• [EEI 2.3 · UNCOVERED] Functional status of medical infrastructure in named locations: number of operational hospitals/clinics, reported shortages of key medicines/blood, and hospital casualty/occupancy figures for the last 72 hours. Recommended collection: medical/health cluster reporting
• [EEI 3.1 · UNCOVERED] Detection of flights, ships or overland convoys delivering military materiel or foreign personnel to named airfields, ports or border crossings (flight/IMO numbers, manifests if available, timestamps, route origin/destination). Recommended collection: air-traffic / maritime / border customs
• [EEI 3.2 · UNCOVERED] Imagery or on-the-ground confirmation of foreign military personnel or private military contractor bases/forward operating elements at specified coordinates or compounds, including vehicle/weapon types observed. Recommended collection: imagery/satellite
• [EEI 3.3 · UNCOVERED] Financial and sanctions-relevant indicators: atypical large transfers, use of designated front companies, or shipments routed through third states linked to procurement of weapons or fuel for RSF or SAF (transaction dates, parties, amounts where obtainable). Recommended collection: financial intelligence

Cited sources

[1] BBC · Sudan's paramilitary RSF chief Hemedti sentenced to death over war crimes (A) · sha256:09b9f29b03ad [2] Wikipedia · Sudanese civil war (2023–present) (B) · sha256:7a5e58adee84 [3] ImpACT International for Human Rights Policies · Sudan's Children Are Vanishing From Classrooms — And The World Calls It "Collateral" (B) · sha256:d95247084d2e [4] Wikipedia · Rapid Support Forces (F) · sha256:8338f1248394 [5] Wikipedia · Darfur campaign (2023–present) (B) · sha256:44ecb992ee6e [6] bitget.com · EU announces restrictions on trading Sudanese gold (B) · sha256:3e2d6318201a [7] Khan Virtual Academy · Sudan's Fractured State: The Civil War Nobody Is Talking About (Full Explainer) (B) · sha256:6670f87321e8

Source content hashes were computed at collection time; the cited text is preserved unmodified for the life of this product.

TLP:CLEAR