Hormuz after the 2026 shutdown: fragile traffic, disputed control
Attacks, mines and a contested fee regime keep the Strait open but precarious as Iran, Oman, the US and Europe test new rules.
Bottom line: the Strait of Hormuz is open but brittle. An interim US-Iran understanding helped traffic resume at various points, yet persistent attacks, floating mines and a contested governance regime have kept risk high. The February 2026 closure produced what one analysis describes as the largest oil supply disruption on record. Flows and ship counts have seesawed since, with short-lived surges followed by sharp drops. Oman frames clearance of the waterway as Iran’s responsibility under a US-Iran memorandum, while Tehran asserts shared sovereignty with Muscat and resists foreign military shows. Washington rejects any Iranian control. A previous European naval effort has quietly lapsed, although Britain and France have flagged readiness for a new multinational mission. China and the UN Security Council have pressed for safe, unhindered passage. Commercial behaviour reflects the uncertainty: some operators resumed sailings, others continue to avoid the Strait and insurance risk remains elevated. An alternative land-sea IMEC corridor is touted as a partial substitute for container traffic, though estimates vary.
- The Feb 2026 closure triggered a record oil supply shock, then uneven reopening
- US-Iran understandings lifted traffic, but mines and attacks keep risk elevated
- Oman says Iran must clear the Strait under a US-Iran MoU, which Washington disputes
- Europe’s earlier naval scheme has withered; UK and France signal a new mission
- Fee regime is contested: US-Gulf oppose charges, Europeans reportedly acquiesce
- Alternatives like IMEC are touted to displace up to 60% of container flows