Strait of Hormuz under contest: night escorts, partial flows, tentative deal
Tehran says the strait is shut, CENTCOM says it is open, and a 15 June pact may trade frozen assets for passage even as attacks mount.
Bottom line: the Strait of Hormuz is neither fully open nor fully closed. Iran’s top command announced a shutdown on 11 June, yet commercial traffic continues at reduced levels, often at night and under U.S. protection. Industry and banking sources point to a near 50 percent month‑to‑date jump in non‑Iranian oil flows and just over 5 million barrels a day crossing, far below the roughly 20 million barrels and one‑fifth of global oil and LNG trade handled before the war. The security picture is harsh. The IMO has verified 46 attacks on shipping since 28 February and 14 seafarer deaths, and its Secretary‑General says no safe passage exists. Iran has fired on ships and a U.S. Apache was reportedly downed, while U.S. forces say they are intercepting drones, degrading Iranian surveillance and enabling convoys exceeding 20 ships a night. A draft U.S.‑Iran memorandum could reopen the strait as soon as 15 June, paired with releasing frozen Iranian assets and lifting a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, but Tehran has not confirmed. Risk of miscalculation remains high.
- Iran declared Hormuz closed on 11 June, yet night transits continue under U.S. cover.
- Non‑Iranian oil flows rose about 50% this month; JPMorgan sees just over 5 mbd crossing.
- Since 28 Feb, 46 verified attacks and 14 seafarer deaths; IMO says no safe passage.
- A 15 June U.S., Iran MOU would trade frozen assets and lift a U.S. port blockade.
- UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar are most exposed to the choke on energy exports.
- CENTCOM says the strait is open, while Iran’s PGSA asserts transit authority.