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Long-form investigation · 1 July 2026

Sudan’s war grinds on: aid via Adre extended as economy unravels

A limited aid opening through Chad sits beside a collapsing currency, rampant abuses, and no sign the SAF-RSF war will end soon.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Bottom line: the conflict between Sudan’s Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces remains unresolved, with heavy fighting, widespread crime and landmine contamination. A narrow humanitarian opening via the Adre crossing through 30 September offers some relief but cannot offset the scale of need or the risks on the ground.

The United Nations calls Sudan the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with roughly half the population facing hunger and more than 11.5 million displaced. The economy is in freefall: the pound has sunk from about 600 to over 5000 per US dollar by June 2026 and output has shrunk by about 40 percent. Khartoum’s military-led authorities are courting non-Western backers amid sanctions. China has waived 50 million dollars in loans and signalled readiness to help rebuild, while Riyadh is reported to be shaping a civilian political base around the army chief. Both sides face grave abuse allegations, including a US determination that the RSF committed acts of genocide and reporting of indiscriminate SAF attacks. A decisive shift before autumn looks unlikely.

KEY FINDINGS
  • Adre crossing stays open to 30 Sept, a narrow lifeline amid vast unmet needs
  • Fighting between SAF and RSF continues; travel is high-risk and unpredictable
  • Both sides face abuse allegations; US found RSF committed acts of genocide
  • Economy has shrunk ~40%; pound fell to >5000 per USD by June 2026
  • China waived $50m and signals help, modest versus $56b pre-war debt
  • UN labels Sudan the largest humanitarian crisis; half face hunger
The full 2,044-word investigation — drivers, competing interpretations, second-order effects, and the outlook — is available on the Pro plan. See plans →
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UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO