Russia
Russia: a wartime state projecting force through Ukraine, overseas deployments and strategic partnerships
Russia is a state actor at war with Ukraine, a conflict that began in 2014 and became full-scale in 2022. The reporting describes sustained drone attacks, including 200 launched against Kyiv and other cities on 15 September 2026, and heavier aerial attacks in August. Russia's first wartime parliamentary elections were held in September, covering annexed Ukrainian regions and Crimea, with United Russia on course to win.
Moscow is also extending its security and political reach abroad. The Africa Corps, operating under the Russian defence ministry, has assumed Wagner's role in Mali, while Russian personnel are reported at an air base in Niamey. Reporting describes military and intelligence cooperation with Iran, growing cultural networks in Africa and disrupted basing arrangements in Syria. Russia is adapting trade and energy arrangements through proposed grain export measures, alternative ports and transport subsidies. The scale and durability of these overseas commitments, and the extent of support to Iran, remain key questions.
- Russia's war against Ukraine continues, with frequent drone attacks and reported strikes on Kyiv energy infrastructure.
- September 2026 parliamentary elections were the first since the 2022 full-scale invasion; United Russia was on course to win.
- The Africa Corps, under Russia's defence ministry, has taken Wagner's role in Mali and expanded Moscow's Sahel presence.
- Russia is reported to be supplying Iran with munitions, satellite imagery and targeting data used against US forces.
- Moscow is adjusting grain exports and transport routes while managing energy disruptions and pressure on distillate supplies.
Synthesised from 40 sourced claims across our published briefings.
The complete claim-by-claim ledger for Russia — every sourced report with its Admiralty grade, confidence, and the briefs that cited it — is on the Analyst plan.
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