UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO
CRISISBRIEF
OSINT BRIEFING TERMINAL
Verifiable ledger · tamper-evident · Bitcoin-anchored

Forecast ledger

The moment CrisisBrief makes a forecast it is sealed into an append-only hash chain: each entry commits to the one before it, so the single head hash commits to the entire history. Edit any past call — a probability, a wording, a date — and every later hash breaks, which anyone can detect. The head is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps, so we cannot have backdated it either. This is the difference between a track record you have to trust and one you can verify.

ENTRIES
10202
HEAD SEQ
#10202
CHAIN HEAD
68db245c02be715e…
LIVE (SEALED)
30
LIVE FORECASTS · SEALED COMMITMENTS (30)
30 live calls sealed & Bitcoin-anchoredVerifiable, timestamped, committed before the fact — readable now on Pro.
Read live calls on Pro →

Sealed = the call is committed (hash public, Bitcoin-anchored) but its wording is withheld so it can’t be gamed. It unseals at its deadline — then anyone can confirm it matches what we committed.

PropositionImpliedUnsealsSealed hash
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb2f1b8fd5ce31ba2…
Sealed··awaiting resolution543372362726ed43…
Sealed··awaiting resolution76c686b0d5799e76…
Sealed··awaiting resolutione1419fd9f0a525d2…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionca76dce2cfb9bed3…
Sealed··awaiting resolution56714d06053bbddb…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb90fd53a4724767c…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionea5d0ac317ccda1b…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiond6d8f32f4a0f826c…
Sealed··awaiting resolution7e49e57772700ebd…
Sealed··awaiting resolutione8b90294cbd321af…
Sealed··awaiting resolutione53713fae921ab71…
Sealed··awaiting resolution4563fb3018ea6111…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb64523f41b0d9145…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiond03150f40564ccc6…
Sealed··awaiting resolution1d6d3b699308a737…
Sealed··awaiting resolution1c786cbf6615b5bd…
Sealed··awaiting resolution93651f99cb87430f…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiona31a75e18afc16a0…
Sealed··awaiting resolution5f394f0f01f40c13…
Sealed··awaiting resolutioneae92db9befd5158…
Sealed··awaiting resolution2ec71ee6cf4c396c…
Sealed··awaiting resolution4092d7cc70751cbd…
Sealed··awaiting resolution4294a178dfd3f7c5…
Sealed··awaiting resolution59f6bdbe49415d99…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiona75f206cecba23e5…
Sealed··awaiting resolution83df5089f3d1d3c2…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionf298efc4cdcebaad…
Sealed··awaiting resolution3ae4afb3d715a3d8…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb420cb8658282ad9…

These are real, verifiable, Bitcoin-anchored commitments. Each row’s hash and countdown are public proof the call exists and is timestamped — the forward-looking wording is part of the Pro plan and is revealed, then scored, on resolution.

Unlock live forecasts
BITCOIN ANCHORS (OPENTIMESTAMPS)
Head #Head hashStatusAnchored
101296d10cb59c750ecb3fc6f8c222d3e403b4566d8774f35c5038b226e7b6de15d9fsubmittedpending
10047c50b522aa51bec7a7068ddcf3eb9829f109867390b2c602b7f868642f221c86dCONFIRMED2026-10-11 05:33Z
99723d10098db3b6434837f893cd57846abf978ee7dc1a41070fa5a163a5d07bf9c4CONFIRMED2026-10-10 05:32Z
9898d73a878657ca2849497c44cc745b482bff9d90b54921d7b58debac2c2cf38b53CONFIRMED2026-10-09 06:15Z
98289d0f2f810bb30eb8b86c1505c0306595f0cea636d705b9e6e2ee879d2fd81f4bCONFIRMED2026-10-08 05:19Z
9738b31b75503f5261b3319f2600edc38fe5c60604d2a26deb01451024253f59ef69CONFIRMED2026-10-07 05:20Z
963931a5176a768b0c5c1cbd7f954a2b564541752eefd6b1d1a384f968c4e2981ffbCONFIRMED2026-10-06 10:06Z
9515b601240d23f202a1733a2540029e0b712b4c533420eba20a883e0ee6e396caa0CONFIRMED2026-10-06 05:28Z
9133920abd0dfac6c9b54290d22d3490ffce72252e762ff265e4b077817a51946c17CONFIRMED2026-10-05 05:34Z
910819fe3b9d49f1fde41bc3f5aecdd8dbdfd342b730eb385e0337b55fb99175dcf3CONFIRMED2026-10-04 05:50Z
9083fd60a4373f2446e91c7a9ee38900b201f44ada79669abe1b3dd042b6a8103440CONFIRMED2026-10-03 05:44Z
9058b3b974af14ad9ef3ee386938cf20be4749c3c5ea13637da6594954bdb629182bCONFIRMED2026-10-02 05:53Z
RECENTLY RESOLVED · REVEALED ENTRIES

The unsealed counterpart of the sealed rows above: once a call reaches its deadline its wording is revealed and its hash can be checked against the commitment we published when we made it.

#PropositionOutcomeBrierEntry hash
10129Will Polish forces intercept a Russian military aircraft over the Baltic Sea by 2026-10-05?OCCURRED0.8106d10cb59c750ecb3fc6f8c22…
WhyStars and Stripes (Sep 24, 2026) reports that the day before the helicopter incident (Sep 23), Polish fighters intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft flying about 30 miles off the Polish coast over the Baltic Sea, within the event window. Corroborated by militarnyi.com noting multiple 2026 Baltic intercepts.[1][2]
9898Will Russian forces launch at least 50 drones in a single attack on Ukraine by 2026-10-08?OCCURRED0.490d73a878657ca2849497c44cc…
WhyMultiple reports indicate Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine around October 7, 2026, with counts of roughly 500 drones launched (e.g., 'about 500 drones and 50 missiles' and '496 drones'), far exceeding the 50-drone threshold, within the event window.[1][2][3]
9857Will Brent crude futures reach US$110 per barrel by 2026-12-18?OCCURRED0.1223ebfd194ac31fd6be5cbb52e…
WhyResolved from the data series: Brent spot (EIA, FRED DCOILBRENTEU) closed at 135.51 on 2026-10-02, at least 10% above the question's 110 threshold, within the window 2026-09-19 to 2026-12-18. The series is a daily spot close, a proxy for the futures or intraday prices a question may name; the 10% band is there to cover that gap (rule series_band_v1). The rule and threshold were sealed in ledger entry 9580.[1]
9856Will Brent crude settle above $120 per barrel on a trading day by 2026-12-14?OCCURRED0.250df73fe549271b122cb622c5c…
WhyResolved from the data series: Brent spot (EIA, FRED DCOILBRENTEU) closed at 135.51 on 2026-10-02, at least 10% above the question's 120 threshold, within the window 2026-09-15 to 2026-12-14. The series is a daily spot close, a proxy for the futures or intraday prices a question may name; the 10% band is there to cover that gap (rule series_band_v1). The rule and threshold were sealed in ledger entry 9577.[1]
9855Will Brent crude oil futures hit $120 per barrel by 2026-12-07?OCCURRED0.122d40141480d193328d826cb68…
WhyResolved from the data series: Brent spot (EIA, FRED DCOILBRENTEU) closed at 135.51 on 2026-10-02, at least 10% above the question's 120 threshold, within the window 2026-09-08 to 2026-12-07. The series is a daily spot close, a proxy for the futures or intraday prices a question may name; the 10% band is there to cover that gap (rule series_band_v1). The rule and threshold were sealed in ledger entry 9545.[1]
9732US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?DID NOT0.06301954f68e8201a7a95f44a59…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9488, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9731Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?DID NOT0.00053dfd7c2d59af31662432f31…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9487, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9730Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?DID NOT0.12271b8e4dd61ab3526e4c62cfb…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9486, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9729US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?DID NOT0.04822e03981b507a794c0e0c49b…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9485, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9728Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?DID NOT0.000bd140bfc43a2d183631374a0…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9484, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9727US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?DID NOT0.0482903fae9f7201a6ebf799619…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9483, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
9726Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?OCCURRED0.5636e9ec5f3fe7193266b079967…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Minnesota?" settled YES. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9469, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.[1]
VERIFY IT YOURSELF
  1. Pull the full chain: /api/track-record/ledger.
  2. Recompute each entry_hash = sha256(seq | entry_type | forecast_id | payload_hash | prev_hash | committed_at) and confirm every prev_hash links to the entry before it. Our in-app check: /api/track-record/ledger/verify.
  3. Reproduce it independently — without trusting our server — with scripts/verify-ledger.mjs.
  4. Verify the timestamps against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client and each anchor’s head_hash.

Back to /track-record.

For information and analysis only. CrisisBrief forecasts geopolitical events, not financial instruments. Nothing here is investment, legal, or trading advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Calibration reflects past performance on event forecasts and does not predict future results.

UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO