UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO
CRISISBRIEF
OSINT BRIEFING TERMINAL
Verifiable ledger · tamper-evident · Bitcoin-anchored

Forecast ledger

The moment CrisisBrief makes a forecast it is sealed into an append-only hash chain: each entry commits to the one before it, so the single head hash commits to the entire history. Edit any past call — a probability, a wording, a date — and every later hash breaks, which anyone can detect. The head is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps, so we cannot have backdated it either. This is the difference between a track record you have to trust and one you can verify.

ENTRIES
5053
HEAD SEQ
#5053
CHAIN HEAD
d7376ca68e7bc530…
LIVE (SEALED)
30
LIVE FORECASTS · SEALED COMMITMENTS (30)
30 live calls sealed & Bitcoin-anchoredVerifiable, timestamped, committed before the fact — readable now on Pro.
Read live calls on Pro →

Sealed = the call is committed (hash public, Bitcoin-anchored) but its wording is withheld so it can’t be gamed. It unseals at its deadline — then anyone can confirm it matches what we committed.

PropositionImpliedUnsealsSealed hash
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb33c7ef6a2f078b7…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionddf02ae7f98e95fb…
Sealed··awaiting resolution50b8bf8509c200c0…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionb972aff0dace54d8…
Sealed··awaiting resolution68542746fa026d93…
Sealed··awaiting resolution5ce40930df8bc99d…
Sealed··awaiting resolution5f4aa6e512e5d138…
Sealed··awaiting resolution7cefb72959a52ec3…
Sealed··awaiting resolution4d7625905fabf9eb…
Sealed··awaiting resolution521113351a9886fc…
Sealed··awaiting resolution547882ae451b293c…
Sealed··awaiting resolution7606c931ca002a7e…
Sealed··awaiting resolution93f42974876b7ac0…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionc2ccc3decc2a12c6…
Sealed··awaiting resolution1a0efa7d3c372c54…
Sealed··awaiting resolution3ea087e4ba798da5…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionc8ca94dc12f8df9e…
Sealed··awaiting resolution7c4bab8a9182b292…
Sealed··awaiting resolution7a41e841ec38cc41…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionca1452b46ea52d1b…
Sealed··awaiting resolution8c090b57e7ef2d93…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiona4a10ecd750b394b…
Sealed··awaiting resolutionc3f243eb59f171d7…
Sealed··awaiting resolution869a7ca02c3c3159…
Sealed··awaiting resolution9b56084c99d5b3bf…
Sealed··awaiting resolution36d280c50b3d0f49…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiond41e32ecaf4777d4…
Sealed··awaiting resolutiondd7e3802609e2dec…
Sealed··awaiting resolution5c58e6609ce680a8…
Sealed··awaiting resolution948edc896ca68e34…

These are real, verifiable, Bitcoin-anchored commitments. Each row’s hash and countdown are public proof the call exists and is timestamped — the forward-looking wording is part of the Pro plan and is revealed, then scored, on resolution.

Unlock live forecasts
BITCOIN ANCHORS (OPENTIMESTAMPS)
Head #Head hashStatusAnchored
4964948db4cdfe51ab1afc8a1955e52042acd985925bcba6fb5e48b66577c3b8eee6submittedpending
482936ce5711aa4908fad4896113c57684099d485f5dec00ec0e5c9990f3880c79aaCONFIRMED2026-08-27 05:37Z
469377a3143765174e18145ae572fbaeec492382c021f33a57350b2565b39ebf2a66CONFIRMED2026-08-26 05:46Z
451456851edf6f64a545caede2fa00990ddd966e479f3c8b36ca824de10cdfff4abbCONFIRMED2026-08-25 05:41Z
432386a2b32c33fd431ff6c50be861b3aa06514b32b6b5e7f0f18cb611596117ea48CONFIRMED2026-08-24 05:52Z
41811aa9d860231e07052f65b39ac766a49809626389bdddcf8366f3e665a134bef7CONFIRMED2026-08-23 05:34Z
404082145230d41fcf6014cafd7350a553dbecee2b4db779af21fef4007f727c459bCONFIRMED2026-08-22 05:56Z
387046ecc705369e99019e36fc38da049e071ff085ef0d436596e9075123ec8cfbaaCONFIRMED2026-08-21 05:20Z
374140e73c752d29ad676f2ff98bd21be2cf2f99ebbca56735271f84ad0fefe07ab2CONFIRMED2026-08-20 05:31Z
3558d87dd7644e3af0a4b4a808d5459121d42a7d4c5a258548746b707605733798f6CONFIRMED2026-08-19 05:38Z
3550f8b2a0fbd6af6ddf7940d581cec64c66a39a40c360ff2e9940664ac6b79c77c5CONFIRMED2026-08-18 05:22Z
354713cbad393be79e8892002ec98a4315aaad5404f71c38e0a226cb9bea1197a519CONFIRMED2026-08-13 05:49Z
RECENTLY RESOLVED · REVEALED ENTRIES

The unsealed counterpart of the sealed rows above: once a call reaches its deadline its wording is revealed and its hash can be checked against the commitment we published when we made it.

#PropositionOutcomeBrierEntry hash
3547Will President Rodrigo Paz declare a 90-day state of emergency for Bolivia by 2026-07-11?OCCURRED0.00313cbad393be79e8892002ec9…
WhyThe Los Angeles Times search result explicitly states that President Rodrigo Paz declared a 90-day state of emergency on June 20, 2026, which is before the deadline of 2026-07-11. The snippet confirms: 'Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has declared a 90-day state of emergency, empowering the military to clear road blockades that have cut off ...'.
3515Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?DID NOT0.0052215c6ba796a96dbfd4c580c…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3514Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.004bdbab485eae3f8e41e5c443d…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3513Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.0058fc573b5740df34efc11d6ad…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3512Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.002c2dc01b030fb71c49efc5d8f…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3511Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.360e39831badca74f1e08e74071…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Anthropic release Mythos before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3510When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?DID NOT0.0231da2895c61bfc9d50b64af9c…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3509When will OpenAI IPO?DID NOT0.122357d3ad3ca970c66e858c5c0…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "When will OpenAI IPO?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3508Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.023ec2f6002042b3558a339ea1b…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Samuel Alito announce their departure as Supreme Court justice before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3507Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.023e3666e4338d416aebbee9d92…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3506Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?DID NOT0.010ba3047d054d893ffd5aae694…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Aug 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
3505Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?DID NOT0.00499c9f7fd82eb52412f423ed6…
WhyResolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.[1]
VERIFY IT YOURSELF
  1. Pull the full chain: /api/track-record/ledger.
  2. Recompute each entry_hash = sha256(seq | entry_type | forecast_id | payload_hash | prev_hash | committed_at) and confirm every prev_hash links to the entry before it. Our in-app check: /api/track-record/ledger/verify.
  3. Reproduce it independently — without trusting our server — with scripts/verify-ledger.mjs.
  4. Verify the timestamps against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client and each anchor’s head_hash.

Back to /track-record.

For information and analysis only. CrisisBrief forecasts geopolitical events, not financial instruments. Nothing here is investment, legal, or trading advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Calibration reflects past performance on event forecasts and does not predict future results.

UNCLASSIFIED // OSINT-DERIVED // FOUO