The moment CrisisBrief makes a forecast it is sealed into an append-only hash chain: each entry commits to the one before it, so the single head hash commits to the entire history. Edit any past call — a probability, a wording, a date — and every later hash breaks, which anyone can detect. The head is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps, so we cannot have backdated it either. This is the difference between a track record you have to trust and one you can verify.
ENTRIES
1650
HEAD SEQ
#1650
CHAIN HEAD
8ca113dbe888cdc3…
LIVE (SEALED)
30
LIVE FORECASTS · SEALED COMMITMENTS (30)
30 live calls sealed & Bitcoin-anchoredVerifiable, timestamped, committed before the fact — readable now on Pro.
▰Sealed = the call is committed (hash public, Bitcoin-anchored) but its wording is withheld so it can’t be gamed. It unseals at its deadline — then anyone can confirm it matches what we committed.
These are real, verifiable, Bitcoin-anchored commitments. Each row’s hash and countdown are public proof the call exists and is timestamped — the forward-looking wording is part of the Pro plan and is revealed, then scored, on resolution.
Recompute each entry_hash = sha256(seq | entry_type | forecast_id | payload_hash | prev_hash | committed_at) and confirm every prev_hash links to the entry before it. Our in-app check: /api/track-record/ledger/verify.
Reproduce it independently — without trusting our server — with scripts/verify-ledger.mjs.
Verify the timestamps against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client and each anchor’s head_hash.
For information and analysis only. CrisisBrief forecasts geopolitical events, not financial instruments. Nothing here is investment, legal, or trading advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Calibration reflects past performance on event forecasts and does not predict future results.