Monthly · sealed on the 1st · every figure computed by code
Forecast review
On the first of each month the engine’s previous month is sealed: what it forecast, what fell due and how each was decided, how the forecasts that have settled scored, what changed in the engine, and which forecasts fall due next. A model writes an overview from those figures; it is published only if every number in it is in them. A sealed review is never rewritten: when later resolutions change its labels, the next review shows it.
SEALED REVIEWS
None yet. The first is sealed on the 1st of next month.
Live · not sealed · changes until the 1st
October 2026 so far
MADE IN THE MONTH
FORECASTS
90
EVENT FAMILIES
89
VOIDED SINCE
0
SETTLED BY DATA OR MARKET
0
THE PROBABILITIES WE GAVE
0% 0
10% 0
20% 0
30% 14
40% 7
50% 4
60% 45
70% 0
80% 20
90% 0
Region
N
Middle East & North Africa
38
Europe & Central Asia
17
Sub-Saharan Africa
11
East Asia & Pacific
10
North America
10
Latin America & Caribbean
7
Most asked about
N
Iran
19
Russia
14
United States
10
Strait of Hormuz
10
China
9
Ukraine
9
Yemen
8
Israel
6
Saudi Arabia
5
Sudan
5
Forecasts under the current contract (with resolution criteria and named sources). 105 made under the old contract are not counted. 6 not yet read for subjects. 0 can be settled from a data series and 0 from a market with the same criteria, without a model.
FELL DUE IN OCTOBER 2026
DUE
52
HAPPENED
0
DID NOT
0
VOIDED
0
STILL OPEN
52
No earlier review announced this month's list.
SETTLED IN THE MONTHdeadlines 2026-07-17 to 2026-08-16
Forecasts are scored 75 days after their deadline, once late resolutions are in, so each is scored in exactly one review: these are the ones whose deadline fell 76 days before this month.
CLOSED
0
LABELLED
0
HAPPENED
0
VOIDED
0
UNRESOLVED
0
FAMILIES (EFF.)
0 (—)
No scores this month. They are learned from resolutions, and the latest check of those resolutions does not vouch for them (check 2: failed: volume: 0 labelled event families (0 forecasts); need 100; coverage: no forecast's window closed more than 30 days ago).
THE ENGINE
Forecasts made by
Prompt
N
—
—
97
gpt-5.6-luna
2f9acb77c44f
65
gpt-5.6-luna
a647c6c3973d
16
gpt-5.6-luna
5388663f0af9
9
gpt-5.6-luna
62f7aeb2f514
8
2026-10-06 replay (health): gpt-6-sol against gpt-6-luna, done
DUE NEXT: NOVEMBER 2026
8 forecasts fall due in November 2026 so far. When this month’s review is sealed, the list is fixed in it, before their outcomes are known, and the next review sets what happened against it.