What we called → what happened
THE CALL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket was sharper on this question — by lower Brier against the same outcome.
The market-implied probability on the day we sealed our call, pinned once and never re-snapshotted. We forecast independently — the market is the benchmark, not an input.
Resolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9483, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.
Adversarial verification: confirmed (independent verdict: false).
This forecast’s hash was committed on 2026-08-19 03:31Z and the chain covering it was anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain on 2026-08-19 05:38Z — before the outcome was settled on 2026-10-07 03:00Z. It could not have been backdated or rewritten.
- Pull this forecast’s ledger entries from /api/track-record/ledger.
- Recompute each entry_hash and confirm every prev_hash links — or run scripts/verify-ledger.mjs without trusting our server.
- Check the head against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client. Full method on the ledger page.
Back to /track-record.