What we called → what happened

THE CALL

Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?

Polymarket was sharper on this question — by lower Brier against the same outcome.

The market-implied probability on the day we sealed our call, pinned once and never re-snapshotted. We forecast independently — the market is the benchmark, not an input.

Resolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Polymarket market "Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9444, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.

[1]

Adversarial verification: confirmed (independent verdict: false).

This forecast’s hash was committed on 2026-07-12 03:30Z and the chain covering it was anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain on 2026-07-12 05:37Z — before the outcome was settled on 2026-10-06 04:38Z. It could not have been backdated or rewritten.

1. Pull this forecast’s ledger entries from /api/track-record/ledger.
2. Recompute each entry_hash and confirm every prev_hash links — or run scripts/verify-ledger.mjs without trusting our server.
3. Check the head against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client. Full method on the ledger page.