What we called → what happened

THE CALL

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?

Kalshi was sharper on this question — by lower Brier against the same outcome.

The market-implied probability on the day we sealed our call, pinned once and never re-snapshotted. We forecast independently — the market is the benchmark, not an input.

Resolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-09-01T14:00:00.000Z?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome. The link to that market is ledger entry 9448, sealed late: the link was made before links were sealed.

[1]

Adversarial verification: confirmed (independent verdict: false).

This forecast’s hash was committed on 2026-07-12 03:30Z and the chain covering it was anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain on 2026-07-12 05:37Z — before the outcome was settled on 2026-10-06 04:38Z. It could not have been backdated or rewritten.

1. Pull this forecast’s ledger entries from /api/track-record/ledger.
2. Recompute each entry_hash and confirm every prev_hash links — or run scripts/verify-ledger.mjs without trusting our server.
3. Check the head against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client. Full method on the ledger page.