What we called → what happened

THE CALL

Will Brent crude settle above $120 per barrel on a trading day by 2026-12-14?

Resolved from the data series: Brent spot (EIA, FRED DCOILBRENTEU) closed at 135.51 on 2026-10-02, at least 10% above the question's 120 threshold, within the window 2026-09-15 to 2026-12-14. The series is a daily spot close, a proxy for the futures or intraday prices a question may name; the 10% band is there to cover that gap (rule series_band_v1). The rule and threshold were sealed in ledger entry 9577.

[1]

Adversarial verification: confirmed (independent verdict: true).

This forecast’s hash was committed on 2026-09-15 18:11Z and the chain covering it was anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain on 2026-09-16 05:30Z — before the outcome was settled on 2026-10-08 12:10Z. It could not have been backdated or rewritten.

1. Pull this forecast’s ledger entries from /api/track-record/ledger.
2. Recompute each entry_hash and confirm every prev_hash links — or run scripts/verify-ledger.mjs without trusting our server.
3. Check the head against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client. Full method on the ledger page.