What we called → what happened

THE CALL

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

Kalshi was sharper on this question — by lower Brier against the same outcome.

The market-implied probability on the day we sealed our call, pinned once and never re-snapshotted. We forecast independently — the market is the benchmark, not an input.

Resolved by independent prediction-market settlement: the matched Kalshi market "Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?" settled NO. CrisisBrief's sealed forecast is graded against that same outcome.

[1]

Adversarial verification: confirmed (independent verdict: false).

This forecast’s hash was committed on 2026-07-10 06:55Z and the chain covering it was anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain on 2026-07-11 06:03Z — before the outcome was settled on 2026-10-02 03:00Z. It could not have been backdated or rewritten.

1. Pull this forecast’s ledger entries from /api/track-record/ledger.
2. Recompute each entry_hash and confirm every prev_hash links — or run scripts/verify-ledger.mjs without trusting our server.
3. Check the head against Bitcoin with the OpenTimestamps client. Full method on the ledger page.