The latest geopolitical risk analysis as it’s published — every assessment backed by a claim-level evidence ledger, drawn from satellite, maritime, energy and open sources. Read the ten newest in full, free.
Very likely (70-90%) that continued US-Iran limited kinetic exchanges and Iran's push to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz will keep maritime a
Very likely the 17-18 June Islamabad Memorandum between Washington and Tehran has effectively fractured after Iran‑linked one‑way drone strikes on mer
Very likely (65-80%; moderate confidence) that reciprocal US-CENTCOM strikes (26-28 June) and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maritime
The People's Liberation Army conducted two median line crossings into Taiwan's ADIZ during five sorties from 1-2 July 2026, sustaining calibrated pressure while avoiding escalatory triggers. Taiwan continues prioritising asymmetric capabilities including a proposed $6.59 billion drone defence package through 2031, though budget constraints persist. NASA-detected thermal anomalies correlate with normal civilian activity rather than military conflict.
Chinese authorities have commenced coordinated Coast Guard and Southern Theater Command patrols around Huangyan Island (Scarborough Shoal), representing a significant escalation of Beijing's integrated maritime enforcement strategy. This development follows Philippine-US joint patrols on 27-28 June 2026 and likely increases risks of confrontations during heightened Philippine election season. Beijing now explicitly frames its operations as responding to Manila's alleged 'troublemaking' in the South China Sea.
Very likely Venezuela's interim government faces mounting political pressure from failed earthquake response and aid obstruction, undermining domestic legitimacy while increasing US leverage. Very likely international rescue efforts continue despite government interference, with death toll projections exceeding 5,000 and over 40,000 people remaining unaccounted for. Almost certainly opposition leader María Corina Machado's blocked attempts to reenter Venezuela have become a critical test of government legitimacy.
Russia very likely executed its largest combined missile and drone attack on Kyiv of this conflict phase on 2 July 2026, employing 74 missiles and 496 drones that killed at least 13 civilians and injured more than 90 others. Ukrainian forces responded with precise strikes against Russian energy and transportation infrastructure while diplomatic channels remain strained as Kyiv explicitly rejects Moscow's framing of attacks as retaliation. This strike represents a significant intensification beyond the large-scale drone operations reported in the prior briefing period.
Israeli forces remain entrenched in southern Lebanon despite June ceasefire arrangements, with Prime Minister Netanyahu stating troops will stay until Hezbollah is disarmed. Hezbollah has rejected the security framework agreement while continuing attacks, maintaining a high likelihood of ongoing hostilities. Civilian harm in Gaza continues with severe medical access constraints despite partial ceasefire provisions.
Recent attacks on Niamey International Airport on 18 June 2026 killed 13 people and signal a dangerous escalation in Islamic State Sahel Province's capabilities. Over 4 million people remain displaced across the Sahel, including 2.1 million in Burkina Faso alone, with terrorism-related deaths having increased nearly tenfold since 2019. Despite pledges to transition to civilian rule, the Alliance of Sahel States continues to institutionalise its security coordination while cementing its separation from ECOWAS.
The IDF will very likely sustain fires and a forward presence in southern Lebanon while Washington and Jerusalem push a Lebanese Army deployment that Israeli officers doubt will contain Hezbollah. In parallel, Iran is likely to keep asserting de facto control over transits at the Strait of Hormuz even as indirect US, Iran talks continue, leaving maritime risk elevated and the ceasefire fragile.
No fresh, corroborated reporting in this 24‑hour window substantiates a surge in jihadist attacks across West Africa. The Security Council will brief on the UN Office for West Africa and the Sahel in July, and NASA FIRMS logged 18 thermal signatures across West Africa in the past day without attribution. Meanwhile, Fortuna Mining’s Diamba Sud project in Senegal is moving into early works, signalling localised resilience.
Iran, Israel confrontation is very likely to persist in the near term, with Israel hardening its posture in southern Lebanon and maritime risk remaining high around the Strait of Hormuz and off Yemen. The Doha channel exists but offers only a roughly even chance of near‑term de‑escalation given combative public signalling by Tehran and Jerusalem.
Chinese Coast Guard patrols inside the Philippine Exclusive Economic Zone off Luzon and activity around Huangyan/Scarborough Shoal, coupled with Manila’s continued reliance on the 2016 arbitration award and visible US, Philippine maritime cooperation, make further tense stand-offs likely in the weeks ahead.